Station Casinos executives traveled to New York CIty recently for two days of meetings with Deutsche Bank analysts. Lead boffin Carlo Santarelli concluded afterward that Station was “being a relative winner” but that a “choppy” third quarter was complicating matters. He nonetheless maintained a “Buy” rating on Station stock and a $65 per share price target. Shares of Station (which trades as Red Rock Resorts) were $54.22 per share at the time.
Continue reading Durango, California power Station
It has been revealed who the Daddy Warbucks behind the latest anti-gambling campaign in Missouri is … and it’s Caesars Entertainment. Yes, the Roman Empire has been sleeping with the enemy. Indeed, with $4 million of skin in this game, Caesars is the enemy. Last week, the company was exposed as the deep pockets behind ad campaigns which seek to defeat sports betting in the November election. If there’s going to be sports wagering in the Show-Me State, voters will have to pass it. The Lege is hopelessly dysfunctional on the issue, having deadlocked time and again. However …
Continue reading Sodomy at Caesars
I’ve been playing NSU Deuces Wild for more than 20 years. It’s a simple game to play at the 99% accuracy level. It’s easier than most other video poker games to play at the 99.9% accuracy level. But it’s virtually impossible to play 100% accurately. The appendices to the Dancer/Daily Winners Guide to NSU Deuces Wild contain hundreds of exceptions to the basic strategy. Even the basic strategy has some real toughies in it.
Consider the following nine pairs of hands. In none of the pairs are the two hands played identically. Do you know which is which? As difficult as this test is, it is much simpler when you have the clue that the two hands are played differently, than it is when you face any of these while playing.
As is my custom, a W stands for a deuce. In the answers, bold italics means the cards are suited with each other.
Test:
Answers:
Don’t fret too much if you didn’t score well. The test was my way of supporting my statement that it was virtually impossible to play this game perfectly. Each of these nine examples have a lot of similar hands to learn. Learning these particular 18 hands still leaves you with several hundred different tough hands to struggle with.
As it happens, until some casinos change their inventory, I’ll be playing NSU Deuces Wild more, dollar-wise, than all the other video poker games I play. So even though each of these distinctions are worth fractions of a penny if you play for quarters, I’m playing enough hands for large enough stakes that it makes sense, to me anyway, if I spend time mastering them.
I could have an exact list of hands in a PDF that I could carry with me on my smart phone. In addition to it being illegal in Nevada and some other states to use cell phones to help you make gambling decisions in a casino, I find this tedious. I’m playing games where I have the advantage, everything considered, and taking 15 seconds to make sure I have the correct play by a tenth of a penny makes no financial sense.
It may surprise you, but I would not have aced the test I presented today. In question 5, I would have drawn five new cards both times, in question 6 I would have held KT both times, and in question 7, I would have drawn five new cards both times. The other six hands I would have aced.
So, what gives? Why would I play these hands incorrectly?
I have worked out a strategy that is “good enough.” I have the Level 4 strategy completely memorized, and for the appendix material, I use the shortcuts provided there. These shortcuts are relatively easy to memorize and get me close enough. I don’t have the tools to accurately measure how accurate my “simplified” strategy is, but I suspect it’s well over 99.99% of what is possible. And I can play it relatively fast.
It’s a far bigger risk to make mistakes by oversight. I know the right play, but maybe I don’t see it, or maybe I get momentarily confused. This happens to me more as a senior citizen than it did a few decades ago.
Even as casino barons moan gloom and doom, and rend their garments, Atlantic City has another good month. August saw gambling halls up 5% from last year and 3% higher than in 2019. The overall gross was $294 million, boosted by slots (+5%) and table games (+4%) alike. Shocklingly (not), Borgata was out front with $74 million, up 1.5%. Its staying power is truly remarkable. Hard Rock Atlantic City climbed 9% to $55.5 million and Ocean Casino Resort leapt 11.5% to $44 million. So the top tier was really kicking ass.
Continue reading Atlantic City and other good news
God bless the New Jersey Republican Party. It is stepping up where Democrats in the Assembly have failed (or at least proven spineless). This week, the GOP’s caucus announced—without equivocation—that it would provide the votes to get smoking in Atlantic City casinos banned. Already 13 GOPers have signed onto the proposed ban. Now, if the Dems can just force a vote, the revocation of Atlantic City’s smelly special status will be over and done.
Continue reading Smoking & mirrors
This week Anthony and Andrew talk about the a new mega-complex coming to the Strip, the presidential debate, famous streets in the US, and more.
Casinos in the Midwest are showing some resilience. In Illinois, they were up 1.5% in August, That’s impressive but the real headline is that they did 8% less on a same-store basis, showing that all the new gambling capacity has not yet been absorbed. Pictured above is the new design for Bally’s Chicago. It’s that thing in the lower middle that looks like a computer printer. Its progenitor, Bally’s Casino in downtown Chicago, did $10.5 million last month, not overwhelming but good enough for fourth place in the state. Or is that good?
Continue reading State of the Union
The big key to winning at video poker and other gambling games is to only play when you have an advantage. Sometimes, though, it’s hard to know whether you have the advantage or not — or even how to measure that advantage.
Casino drawings provide one example. The casino agrees to give away such and such prizes. If you knew how many tickets were going to be in the drum, how many tickets you were going to end up having, and the value of the prizes, you could figure out what your EV was in the drawing. Factoring in how much coin-in it cost you to earn that many tickets and you can figure out your percentage return. Even if you could calculate it at 0.2%, it comes with a high variance. Usually, you don’t get drawn. Occasionally you do.
But you don’t usually know how many tickets are going to be in the drum, nor the exact number of tickets you’re going to end up with. And sometimes you don’t even know how much the prize is worth. Cash or free play is pretty straightforward. But what about if the prize is a car? Sometimes there’s a cash option, at 75% or 80% of retail, but not always. It might be a specific vehicle, or it may be a voucher for $25,000 (or any other amount) at such and such dealership.
What if it’s a Chevrolet dealership and you hate Chevies? Or if it’s a Toyota dealership and you practice a “Buying American” philosophy? Hard to put a number on these things.
What about comps? Some casinos offer you a certain amount of comp dollars, but these are hard to value as well. There are usually a limited number of outlets at which you can spend your comp dollars. If you get $100 to spend at the gift shop, if there is nothing there you want or what is there is greatly overpriced compared to what you can buy it for elsewhere, that comp is hardly worth $100.
You may earn enough comps to eat at one of the gourmet rooms, but what if this isn’t the kind of food you enjoy or is on your diet? Even if it is food you enjoy, if you have $200 to spend (eat it or lose it), you’ll probably use most of it up even if your typical dinner costs far less than that. You might decide a $40 tip is warranted on this meal while your typical dinner with tip might be $50. Is this comp worth $200 or $10?
The South Point casino regularly runs promotions where you play a certain amount and earn one or more spins where each spin is worth between $5 and $100. (The exact rules vary each time, but are often similar to this.) If you don’t know how much average spin is, how are you going to put a value on the promotion?
For me, since I play approximately a breakeven game at the South Point (99.7%+ games and a 0.3% slot club) before the promotion and mailers, any additional free play is welcome, but not needed to justify playing. I’ll come in on the days you can get the spins (if I’m in town) and collect the extra money, but the promotions aren’t sufficient for me to play extra. Whereas unlimited double points just might be.
I do not put a value on room comps, although I definitely use them when out of town. If I weren’t there, I wouldn’t need a room, and I can’t “cash in” the value of the room. (Or, rather, I don’t. Years ago, I sometimes sold room nights, but not anymore.) A suite is appreciated over a regular room, but if the game isn’t more than 100% without the suite, I stay away.
In Vegas and many other cities, there are professional sports teams and some casinos offer you tickets to the events — often premium seats with amenities. Were I someone who would buy tickets to these events, this is a comp worth money and I would conceivably play a slightly-under 100% game to score the tickets. Since I basically have a “I’ll take the tickets if they are offered, but I wouldn’t go out and buy them” attitude, I don’t factor this into whether a game is playable.
Sometimes there is a jewelry or some other giveaway that attracts Bonnie’s eye. I’ll play extra for that. I don’t put an exact value on “keeping Bonnie happy,” but it is definitely something worth investing in. So I do.
Uncle Sam just came down like a ton of bricks on Wynn Resorts. Making history in a way it would prefer not to, Wynn has agreed to pay the largest fine ever leveled on a casino company. It will have to cough up $130,131,645 to settle an extensive money-laundering case that brought together the Department of Homeland Security, the IRS and the DEA. Amazingly, the federal probe flew completely under the radar until early this morning, perhaps because we were all distracted by the ongoing scandal at Resorts World Las Vegas. Whatever the case, Wynn got clotheslined hard for its risk-friendly business stratagems.
Continue reading Rotten to the Wynncore
This week Anthony and Andrew talk about the Tropicana implosion, reduced taxes on football betting, powerful (free) gambling articles, and more.
