More than ten years ago, Bonnie and I were just starting to date. Some holiday was coming up and South Point was offering double points, as was their custom then. My game of choice, now long gone, was dollar Ten Play 9/6 Double Double Bonus Quick Quads, worth 99.65%. Since Quick Quads is a 6-coins-per-line game, this cost $60 per play.
For those not familiar with this game, there are a lot of unusual holds — such as 7743, 8885, 6663 (but not 8884), 443 (but not 442), and even, under the right conditions suited 23 and 34. Still, I had studied and practiced and knew the game well.
Typically, on one of South Point’s 2x point days (0.60% instead of 0.030%), I’d play about $200,000 coin in. The average loss on the game itself was $700 (0.9965 x $200,000 = $199,300) and the slot club on double point day would pay $1,200 (2 x 0.0030 x $200,000 = $1,200).
My expected profit of $500, plus mailer money and food, was the reason I was willing to spend all day at the casino. I told Bonnie that I could be talked out of playing if it was a really important deal to her, but normally on holidays I played at South Point. This was fine with Bonnie. She was going to spend the day at her sister’s house. I was welcome, but it wasn’t really a big deal whether I was there or not.
The variance of a Quick Quad game is very close to the same as the base game. Those of you who play Double Double Bonus know it to be a game with medium volatility. Much more volatility than Jacks or Better. Much less than Triple Double Bonus Poker.
On Ten Play Double Double Bonus, your score for a multi-hour play will primarily depend on the number of royals, aces (especially those with a 2, 3, or 4 kicker), plus the number of dealt quads. Dealt quads in this game pay 2,600, $4,000, $10,000, or $20,000. These are not the same numbers for regular Double Double Bonus Ten Play, but they are correct for this Quick Quads version.
There is nothing sacred about playing $200,000 through the machines. That requires about 12 hours of play, and at my age then, that meant two six-hour sessions. I can’t always get a second session as there were only four machines. Some other time I’ll share some of my techniques geared toward getting a second session.
On the particular holiday in question, I spent my normal time gambling and ended up $4,000 in the dumpster, not including slot club points and benefits. This was not a particularly unusual result. I have been ahead $20,000 on one occasion and $40,000 on another playing this same game. The score will average about minus $700 so sometimes the score is positive and sometimes it is negative.
The next day, Bonnie asked how I did, and I told her she didn’t want to know. She asked again, and I told her I had lost $4,000.
“And you think this is a good deal? You could have spent the day with me at my sister’s and it wouldn’t have cost you a cent. Just think of what you could do with $4,000!”
While Bonnie’s question was probably “common sense” for many people, it’s opposite to the way I think. If I wanted us to have any future together, she’d at least need to accept the way I think about such matters.
“Well, Bonnie. First of all, for the games I play, a win or loss of $4,000 isn’t that large. I’ve had jackpots that size or larger several thousands of times during my career. I even had two of those today. I could have used another but I ran out of time.
“If I thought I would lose four grand, I wouldn’t have played. That was one possible result. As was winning $10,000. As was breaking even. As were thousands of other possibilities. I calculated the average amount, and it was big enough to make it worth my while.”
“You lost this time. What if you lost every time?”
“Well, that’s one of those things that is technically possible, but it has a probability of zero. I know that sounds like mathematical double-speak but it’s true. If I keep making bets where I have the advantage, I’m the overwhelming favorite to make money if I keep doing this.”
“But what if you go broke first?”
“That’s a very good question. Bankroll calculations are complicated, but these $60 bets are small enough relative to my wealth that it’s basically impossible for me to go broke playing this game. If I were betting $1,000 a hand, that’s a different calculation. But I’m not, and it’s hard for me to imagine a casino putting out a game that big with a huge player-advantage.”
“So, you think you can gamble forever and be okay?”
“Casinos change games and restrict players. I might run out of games to play. Or maybe spend my time playing for smaller stakes if I want to play at all. I might decide I have a bigger edge in a game other than video poker. But I don’t think I’ll run out of money.”
“It still scares me a little bit. If you go broke, I don’t want you coming after my money.”
“I’m not going broke. Tell you what. Pick somebody you trust, somebody smart, maybe your daughter, maybe your accountant, maybe your lawyer. And then pick any three years between 1994 and 2012. I will show both of you my gambling logs for the years you pick and explain what the numbers mean. You’ll see a daily record of what casinos I played at, what games I played, what W2-Gs I hit, and how much they all added up to at the end of each of those years.
“After we do this, you’ll see I treat this like a profession. I have winning and losing sessions, but overall, I’m way ahead. Come and sit next to me during a gambling session. Come to one or more of my classes. I have several gambling friends — male and female, often married couples. We can go out to dinner with a number of them over the next several months. Ask them anything you want about me.”
“Wouldn’t your friends only say nice things about you?”
“Maybe. But you’ll be able to make a judgment as to whether these are nice people or not. And honest people.”
“And why would I want to do all of that?”
“If you’re thinking about some sort of a significant relationship, call it doing ‘due diligence.’”
Suffice it to say, “it worked” and Bonnie and I have been married more than nine years. It’s not easy finding somebody compatible— especially if your profession isn’t “normal.” Easy or not, it’s something you have to go through if you don’t want to spend the rest of your life by yourself.
