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Locals Rise, Strip Sinks

It’s a good thing that Las Vegas has diversified its economy since 2008. Were that not the case, the subpar performance of the Las Vegas Strip would be pulling everyone down with it. But September’s gambling grosses show resilience in the locals-casino sphere … and the weakness of the Strip starting to infect Downtown as well.

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The Wizard of Odds at the Sphere

Bob Dancer

I rarely go to movies and don’t remember if I’ve ever recommended a movie in my blog, but here goes a rave review. 

After hearing several positive things about the experience, Bonnie and I decided to go to the Sphere and see The Wizard of Oz. The Sphere is a big ball, just east of the Palazzo on Spring Mountain, and the entire inside of the big ball is the movie screen.

While this is the original 1939 movie, it was color enhanced sometime along the way and shortened by a couple of songs so they could have back-to-back shows in the same day, the experience at the Sphere is immersive and different from anything I’ve previously witnessed. 

I suppose I should offer a spoiler alert here — but this is an 86-year-old movie, with a couple of sequels out there, and I’m guessing most of you are generally familiar with the story. 

The first and last scenes, in mid-19th-century Kansas, are in black and white — actually brown and white. When the tornado strikes, the theater rumbles, lights flash, and wind blows. Thousands of leaves (actually paper) fly around the theater. This kind of multisensory experience is what the Sphere was built to deliver — and it delivers it well.

While I was enjoying the spectacle, Bonnie was squeezing my leg. She was actually scared while the tornado was going on! In her own way, she was getting more out of the movie than I was. I suspect small children may also be frightened by the tornado, and later by the Wicked Witch.

After the tornado, when Dorothy wakes up in Oz, the colors are spectacular — all the more so because it was black and white previously —- and the colors cover the entire sphere above and around you. 

Just before Dorothy and the scarecrow meet the tin man, apples fall from trees. In the VIP seat area, foam apples fall from the “sky.” Many get sold on eBay for prices as high as the tickets to the show! 

There was one thing about the show that puzzled me until I slept on it. The Sphere seats around 18,000 people — and there were areas on the side that were totally empty! Tickets are in high demand, so why did they leave thousands of unsold tickets?

I think the answer was that we were in a 5:00 p.m. show. The show lasts 90 minutes, and there was also an 8:00 show scheduled for the same night. I’m guessing the logistics of emptying and cleaning the theater before the next show was such that had they sold those extra 3,000 or 4,000 tickets, they couldn’t get it all done. 

The biggest “problem” with the Sphere, in my opinion, is the location. While it is walking distance from a few casinos, it’s not a short walk. We went on Wednesday, October 15, for the 5:00 show and it was cold. While Vegas is warmer than many places in the country, it’s going to get colder through the winter months.

There is parking on the site for $20, which might be the best option. There were many thousands of Uber, Lyft, and regular taxis involved in getting so many people in and out. I was walking briskly to our car, feeling underdressed because it was so cold, and I didn’t stand around and watch how the taxi and ride sharing worked. I suspect it worked pretty well — the whole affair was run efficiently — but I can’t testify to that from personal experience.   The show is scheduled to run through April, at least. I suggest you check it out.

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Foul Play

Be careful what you wish for, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, you are liable to get it. Silver wanted sports betting and, over the last seven years, has seen the consequences come home to roost in his league. Whereas the NFL cleaned up its sports betting problem (consisting mainly of player stupidity) fairly expeditiously and Major League Baseball comes down like a ton of bricks on offenders, the NBA remains dogged by scandal. (Can you say “Jontay Porter“? We thought so. How about “Malik Beasley“?)

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Wizard of Oz at Sphere

Like everyone else, I’d heard all the amazing things about Sphere over the last two years. I’d been wanting to experience it firsthand, but none of the bands that have played there so far have interested me enough to go and certainly not enough to pay Sphere prices to see them.

So I was excited when I realized that my next scheduled Vegas trip was only a few weeks after Sphere’s debut of the remake of The Wizard of Oz. I grabbed tickets early and was glad I did; demand has only gotten stronger after all the word of mouth about the show.

Two caveats. This review contains spoilers and is from the perspective of someone who hadn’t yet experienced the largest screen on Earth. If you’ve already seen a concert or movie there, some of this will be old territory for you.

I went to a 10 a.m. show and arrived a little before 9. There were plenty of kids and families at that hour and a handful of people (kids and adults alike) were dressed up in character; Sphere is encouraging people to don Oz costumes for their Halloween-weekend screenings. Doors opened between 9 and 9:15 and entry/security checkpoints went more smoothly than I expected. You don’t need to arrive as early as I did, but do give yourself some extra time. Merchandise lines are long and there are a few fun things to see in the lobby.

My seat was in Section 307, row 11, which was ideal: dead center and not too high up. I would have had a better view from one of the lower rows of my section, but I wouldn’t have wanted to be in the 200s; in the rear rows of the 200s, your view is partially blocked by the overhang from the 300 sections.

You have to climb down some very steep stairs from the concourse to the 300-level seats; if you’re prone to veritgo or dizziness, keep your head down, focus on the stairs, and wait to look around the theater until you’re in place. And no one, vertigo or not, should navigate the stairs without hanging onto the handrail for dear life.

The show itself was absolutely amazing all around. You felt like you were inside the movie. The best comparison I can make is that it’s like riding Soarin’ at Disney World for an hour-plus. At certain points, you feel like the theater is actually moving (it’s not, but again, if you’re prone to vertigo, maybe close your eyes for a few seconds during these sequences). The film is so high def that you can count individual pieces of straw during the Scarecrow’s scenes. The sound is impressive (though I did spot some minor lip-sync issues in one or two spots — barely noticable and not surprising, considering all the work they did to transform the original film).

And the effects … man! I can’t overstate how impressive they are. There’s not a lot of Disney/Vegas crossover in general, but this really was Disney-level Imagineering, like you’d get on a ride such as Remy or Rise of the Resistance: Apples fall from the sky during the forest scene, actual flying monkeys in the theater supplement the ones on screen, and the tornado scene causes the audience to break into spontaneous applause. I won’t completely spoil it for you. Suffice it to say, you’ll be very impressed.

Runtime is 75 minutes (the movie has been edited down slightly, though what’s missing isn’t particularly discernible), but budget some time to take in the post-show theatrics in the lobby.

Tickets are expensive (and dynamic — check the website for your preferred show and seat location), but I paid $150 to a company owned by someone I find distasteful to see a movie I own on video and definitely felt it was worth it.

Sphere’s website claims to have strict no-bag and no-photo/video policies, but I saw both violated with abandon and no apparent consequences, but your mileage may vary.

If you’re on the fence about this, don’t be. The Wizard of Oz lives up to all the hype.

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… And They’re Here To Help

Not! It’s time for Stupid Government Tricks, in which the guvmint blunders into gambling oversight, usually with disastrous consequences. First up is Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D), who wants to double down on Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and his usurious tax on sports betting handle. Seeing all the money the state stands to make (and possibly affrighted by the specter of predatory prediction markets), Johnson proposes a 10.25% tax on OSB revenue. It’s all part of a tap dance to cover a gaping budgetary hole. The target amount? $26 million a year.

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Bobby Vegas—Ask and Ye Shall Win

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Advantage players search for edges. In addition to the usual techniques at blackjack, video poker, sports betting, and tournaments, they keep their eyes out for opportunities where the house offers a promotion, but miscalculates the odds.

A good example comes from Anthony’s YouTube channel interview with Jonathan Jossel. The Plaza offered a 30% rebate on W9 taxable wins for 24 hours. APs swept in and played keno — yes, keno — till the cows came home. Not exactly the usual AP game. Being a stand-up guy, Jossel didn’t cancel the promotion when he realized the mistake, even though it cost the Plaza several hundred thou. In 24 hours, no less.

That’s how significant exploiting a loophole can be.

Now, some APs will grouse at me again for publishing this, as they have when I wave the flag about advantage play VP opportunities or stacking promos, but that’s my job, helping you see the (value) light pointing the way to the promised land before the house catches it. And they’re watching, so you have to move quick.

A favorite expression comes to mind: “Happiness is positive cash flow.” OURS, not theirs!

The purpose of this post is to MAKE YOU THINK, to ask, “What if …?”

You should realize that you’ll make mistakes, hit dead ends, find out your hunch was, a buncha hooey. Are you willing to take that risk? Look dumb? Get the door slammed in your face? If so, I can tell you that when you’re RIGHT, it’s so sweet. Positive cash flow sweet.

Ken, an Arizona reader, told me about his experience calling the Virgin attempting to get info on their tier bump requirements. Reaching the player’s club, a very uncooperative staff member hung up on him. Customer service? Fuggedaboudit!

He didn’t get the info needed but that’s okay, because Ken’s ASKING was key. He was SEARCHING.

BTW, Ken got a free Bobby Vegas T-shirt for the tip. “Avoid the Virgin!” Ever since they transformed the truly legendary Hard Rock into this no-winners no-fun land of boring games and well corporate tomfoolery, the “Virgin” is more like a (I shouldn’t be that vulgar, so let’s just say) washed out.

Here’s another example of my thought process.

If less people are coming to Vegas for the foreseeable future, where can I find an undiscovered advantage — beyond great hotel deals? Like if bingo has 30% less people, but the payouts are the same, does that raise our odds for winning substantially
compared to bingo’s edge? YES. Get my drift?

Check it out. Try being wrong. ASK, and win.

Where else have you found an edge or tried to? Share your discoveries and mistakes.

Next up is my favorite math formula (nerd alert):

It’s not “Any X equals X.” It’s “Any X equals ANY X”!

O.M.G. The Birthday Paradox. I love it. We’ll get to it in my next blog. Stay tuned.

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If I Could Do It Over Again

Bob Dancer

I’m approaching the twilight of my life and career, and I sometimes reflect on whether I could have done it better. My readers are, for the most part, younger than I am, and at least some of them would like to pursue successful gambling as a career. Perhaps there are some lessons for others in my musings.

For the sake of today’s blog, I’m going to take it as a given that I became a successful gambler, writer, and teacher. This ending was never a foregone conclusion. That’s just the way it turned out. 

Education:

At the time I stopped going to graduate school in the mid-70s, I had never heard of video poker. While I was reasonably proficient at games and just beginning to play backgammon professionally, I didn’t envision my life turning out the way it did.

I studied a lot of math and economics in school, which was a good choice. Gambling is mostly applied math, especially probability, and the more I knew about that the better. When I attended UCLA, economics was taught as logic applied to the real world. That’s a perfect background for a gambler.

Today I wish I knew more math and computer programming. There were many video poker games that arose which needed to be analyzed by computer programs. Commercially available computer software came of age during my career, but there were many problems these software programs couldn’t solve. Sometimes I hired others to do the programming for me, but I could have addressed these games more efficiently had I known how to program myself.

I had no idea I was going to be a writer. Somehow, I went all the way through school while never having to write a term paper. I never completed my Ph.D. dissertation, largely because I didn’t know how to write well. Today I get my blogs edited before you see them.

The irony of this is that if I had been a competent writer, I probably would have completed the dissertation and become a professor of economics — or at least started out that way. Others have gone from academia to the world of gambling. Perhaps I would have too.

I took some public speaking classes along the way, including debate. This was valuable training for teaching classes. Debate teaches you the principles of argumentation. There have been a lot of disagreements with casino players and other players. Knowing how to present my case clearly has led me to have a better-than-average results in these arguments.

I’m fortunate that my career included both teaching and writing. I wouldn’t know the subject nearly as well as I do without all the study required for these two activities. 

Consulting: 

I consulted for a variety of casinos and game manufacturers — although I haven’t for several years. The effects of this were both good and bad.

On the good side, I was paid well to look at casinos and their inventory all across the country. I wrote reports to the casinos that hired me to do this, but I also learned so much while I did this. Plus, getting paid well was a nice cushion when my gambling activities weren’t going so well.

On the down side of consulting, there were a lot of players who were very uncomfortable with me doing this. Basically, they wanted me to “pick a side and stick to it.” If I were going to write for players, fine. If I were going to write for casinos, that’d be okay too. But writing for both led to a lot of mistrust because they didn’t know where I stood. Many believed I was doing something shady or detrimental to players’ interests. I don’t believe I was doing either of those things but convincing some players of that proved impossible for me.

I took a lot of abuse from a large number of players over the years. In the early days of the internet, a lot of people using pseudonyms anonymously criticized and ridiculed me on video poker forums. I tried responding, but when the abuse is coming from several different directions with many choosing to believe the worst about me no matter what I did or said, it became an impossible situation. The only available response for me was to shut up and try to ignore it. No fun at all.

Love life:

My love life has been nothing to brag about. While I believe that humans should mate for life, I haven’t been able to manage that. By a long shot.

Still, for some reason, I ended up okay. Bonnie and I have been happy with each other, and we didn’t get together until we were both senior citizens. I’m used to the debate concerning “skill versus luck” in gambling. Finding Bonnie when I did was definitely good luck.

Podcast:

I was interested in doing a podcast at the same time Frank Kneeland was. Unfortunately, Frank and I were not a good fit together, and we lasted only six months before I asked him to bow out. 

Richard Munchkin was a miraculously good replacement. He gambled successfully for decades at table games — which is different from my expertise. He knows tons of people in the gambling world and is universally well-respected. At his first stint as co-host, he still lived in Southern California. He felt the podcast was better if he did it in person, so he drove four-or-so hours each way each week. Understandably that got to be a drag and he asked to find a replacement for him after a while.

I talked Michael Shackleford into being a co-host, and that worked pretty well for a while. Michael was far more mathematical than I was, and the guests he knew — game designers, other mathematicians, and sports bettors — were a change-up from the guests Richard and I attracted. Which wasn’t a bad thing.

After a year and a half, Shackleford became bored with the podcast. Richard had moved to Las Vegas by this time and was willing to resume cohosting the show. I was delighted.

For more than 10 years, we aired more than 50 podcasts per year. We attracted professional gamblers and wannabe professional gamblers as an audience. I was preparing for the podcasts more than playing video poker — which was good.

I learned details about winning at other forms of gambling — especially blackjack and sports betting. 

For whatever reason, I started being criticized less and respected more.  I’m not exactly sure why, but I’ll take it. My best guess is that many of the people who previously criticized me had not met me but had merely heard things about me. Now they heard me on the podcast and figured out I wasn’t the monster I was portrayed to be. 

My detractors will never go away completely. My style/personality/sense of humor rubs some people the wrong way. I am what I am.

Health and Diet:

For the most part, I’ve been good at this — with some lapses. I struggle to keep my weight under control, but it’s not terrible. I’m up to date on my vaccines and hope I’ll always be able to get them regardless of whomever is in charge of the CDC.

I’ve done a lot of study on longevity and believe I’m doing things that will give me a decent chance to reach my 90s or maybe beyond. We’ll see.  

Conclusion:

Yes, I could have done things differently, but I’ve had a good life and a good career. And my writings will leave a legacy of sorts behind me. Not such a bad result.

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Atlantic City Levels Off

After a good summer, gambling winnings in Atlantic City have plateaued in September, achieving $230.5 million. The coffee achiever of the Boardwalk was Ocean Casino Resort (above), catapulting 39% to $39.5 million. Hard Rock Atlantic City was still ahead at $45.5 million (2%) but that might be too close for comfort. Borgata led with $63 million but had the flattest grosses in town.

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