Category: Advice for Players

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Obtaining Information from the Universe

Bonnie and I were having a casino meal with a woman in her late 20s. She and her husband (who was about the same age as she and not present at the lunch) were both players who were trying to decide whether to continue with their video poker career or go try something else.

The day before, this woman had hit a $40,000 royal flush on a $10 machine — her biggest jackpot to date.

“I look at this royal flush as evidence that the universe believes I should continue playing video poker,” she told us.

I, for one, believe that such thinking is nonsensical. Whether you call me a skeptic, an agnostic, or an atheist (none of these terms exactly fits my view of my beliefs — but possibly they are good enough for this article), I do not believe that some sort of Higher Power was involved in her hitting the royal flush.

She had been playing 8/5 Bonus Poker. With correct play, royals in that game come around every 40,000 hands or so. The fact that one hit the day before was coincidence. They are going to be hit some time by every player — and one came about the day before. The next one might be tomorrow — or maybe in a few months. You just don’t know. And they come about whether you believe in Higher Powers or you don’t.

The decision on whether or not to “go get a job” should properly depend on things like:

  1. What games are available in your area?
  2. How much can you reasonably expect to make playing video poker?
  3. How much do you like the game?
  4. What other skills and/or interests do you have?

None of the things on this list has anything to do with how long it has been since your last royal flush.

If your list includes something like, “What do you think God wants you to be doing?” the answer will probably always be, “I can’t believe God really thinks being a professional gambler is an enlightened way to live my life.” This type of consideration doesn’t enter into my decisions — but I recognize that for some people it does.

But while I don’t believe that a $40,000 jackpot is particularly significant in making the decision about whether to continue being a professional gambler, it could definitely make a difference bankroll-wise. One excellent reason to quit gambling is if you’re broke. Royal flushes can provide a cushion which tends to postpone the decision for another day.

It is common, yet misleading, to take stock of what you want to do with your gambling future immediately after you hit a big jackpot. The reason it’s misleading is that you are making a decision at a relative high point in your bankroll — and your bankroll may regularly fluctuate by significant amounts.

The fact that this couple today has $xxx in their gambling bankroll immediately after the $40,000 royal flush is just one data point. She could very well lose $10,000 or more tomorrow playing the same game. Would the decision about her future be the same after the $40,000 win as it would be after that $10,000 loss? If not, then why would you think that the decision you make one day which will affect your future for a long time is any more valid than the decision on another day?

Finally, I didn’t tell this young woman any of this on that day. This was a friendly get-together and the first time Bonnie and she had met. I knew the husband much better than I knew her — and he and I have had these bankroll discussions periodically. I didn’t need to have the same conversation with her. Each family has its own way of dealing with financial items and I’ll let them work it out.

Bonnie and I congratulated her and were happy for her. If she and her husband invite me to help them with this decision later, I will. I’m very fond of them and have a sort of grandfatherly relationship with her husband. But if I’m not invited to participate in this decision, that’s okay too.

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Why Play When It’s Not Worth Very Much?

Sometimes on holidays, the South Point offers 2x points — which means 0.6% because the base is 0.3%. This is equivalent to 6x points at the myriad of casinos that offer 0.1% base points.

This past July 4, they offered a Hot Seat promotion instead. This is a promotion where approximately 20 players an hour are randomly awarded $100 in free play from 8 a.m. through midnight. Let’s look at this a bit.

At 8 a.m., there might be 200 players in the casino — so each active player has about a 1-in-10 chance to win $100 in an hour — which means $10 per hour. At 8 p.m., there might be 1,000 players in the casino, so the promotion is worth $2 per hour at that point. Both my 200 and 1,000 numbers are wild-ass guesses. Still, they are the best estimates I have, and I need some basis to figure out how much a promotion is worth.

Is this better or worse than 2x points? This part is simple math, but many of my readers aren’t comfortable with doing this calculation. Let’s say you’re playing 800 hands per hour. If you play quarter single line, 800 hph comes to $1,000 coin-in, and 2x points is worth an extra $3 per hour. If you play $2 single line, 800 hph comes to $8,000 coin-in and 2x points is worth an extra $24 per hour.

Neither of these numbers mean you are necessarily a favorite when you play. It depends on which game you are playing. If you’re playing NSU Deuces Wild, which returns 99.728% when played perfectly, the numbers above pretty much represent expected dollars per hour if you play the game well. If you’re playing a lesser game, the casino may well still be a favorite no matter which promotion you are playing. If you’re playing a game that returns more than NSU, the numbers above are additional expected profit over and above what you’re already earning.

Using the information in the preceding paragraph, you can extrapolate to figure out what your game is worth. If you play smaller stakes, then the Hot Seat promotion, where every player who plays at least $1 per minute has the same chance, is the more valuable promotion. If you play for higher stakes, then the 2x points promotion would be worth a lot more.

I play for higher stakes, so clearly the Hot Seat promotion isn’t worth too much to me in terms of dollars per hour. And, yet, I hammered the promotion — playing more than ten hours. Playing ten hours straight used to be a walk in the park for me. I’m 71 years old now. It’s a struggle to play that long and still be alert. And yet I did.

The question becomes:  If the promotion wasn’t worth very much, why did I play it so hard? At first glance, this doesn’t seem to make much sense.

The answer is that I already committed to play $83,340 on both my card and Bonnie’s sometime during the month because we liked another promotion going on — namely play and redeem $8,334 worth of points and get a $50 Chevron gas card or $50 Walmart gift card — maximum ten per player. This is already similar to 2x points, because usually that much play earns you $25 in cash or free play and in July you get a $50 gift card.

So, it now becomes a matter of: If I’m already planning to play that much during the month and playing during the Hot Seat promotion gives me “something extra” which I wouldn’t receive playing at other times during the month, getting something extra is obviously better than getting nothing extra.

This still doesn’t address the alternative costs. Other casinos might be having good promotions as well on July 4. If my expected earnings were “a lot” at other casinos, this could easily surpass the perceived value of the opportunity at South Point. If it were important to Bonnie to go somewhere that day, that could easily be more important as well. Each person needs to make his own decision based on his own life.

As it turned out, I played ten hours at South Point and two hours somewhere else where they offered a little something that I felt was worth going for.

My results? To me, this is the least important matter in the whole affair. The critical part of the situation is the analysis that goes into the decision. Many people, however, want to judge the decision after the fact by the results. This does not give you useful information, because you don’t have this information before you make the decision. If I don’t include my results, you can bet someone will ask, “How did you do?”

So, on July 4 I was called once for the Hot Seat promotion for $100, and I lost considerably more than the value of the gift cards I earned. Oh well. That’s gambling. I care much more about expected value than I do about actual results.

If the circumstances are the same at some future time, I will likely play the promotion the same way — possibly modified because I’ll be older then and maybe won’t be able to play so long.

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Looking at 9-5 Double Double Bonus Poker with Multiple Progressives

The Vegas Stats & Information Network radio studio is located in the middle of the South Point casino floor, and periodically I’ve been a guest of the early morning show hosted by Paul “Paulie” Howard and Mitch Moss. Paulie mentioned that he found the DDB progressives interesting and wanted me to talk on the show about when you should get on the machine.

Such numbers do not make for good radio, especially since some of the listeners are probably driving to work and can’t take the time to write down anything. When I was last on the program on June 29, I gave some numbers and said that I’d be going into greater detail in my July 17 blog. And here we go!

If you’re serious about progressives, you should get Frank Kneeland’s “The Secret Guide to Video Poker Progressives.” That has by far more useful information on progressives than you’ll find anywhere else.

For today, I’ll assume you’re just going to be playing the game occasionally — and basically want to know how to figure the return on the game.

The game in question at the South Point contains a number of progressives, but does NOT have a progressive on the straight flush. Today I’m going to assign a number to the straight flush progressive because this same progressive is found in numerous casinos — sometimes with a progressive and sometimes without.

In addition to telling you how to evaluate the game, I also want to explain how I came up with the numbers. That way readers who are interested can apply the same technique to other progressives.

You’re going to need computer software to analyze progressives. I’m going to use Video Poker for Winners and WinPoker as those are the ones I use regularly and know well. If you have Wolf Video Poker, that can work as well. While it’s not quite as user-friendly, the wizardofodds.com has a free calculator you can use online. For many, it’s hard to beat free.

To start with, we need the base return of this dollar game, which is 97.87%. We’re going to be coming back to this base game over and over again.

To see how the progressive on the royal increases the return, I’ll set the royal on the game to 8000 coins. When I do this, I see the return is close to 100.13%. Assuming the return increases linearly (not completely accurate, but close enough for the analysis we’re going to be doing today), this means that when the royal increases $4,000, the value of the game increases 2.26%. Dividing by 4, when the royal increases by $1,000, the return on the game increases 0.56%. Once we have this multiplier, we can figure it out for any royal. Say the royal is at $7,356. That is 3.35 “$1,000 increments” more than the base game, and 3.35 * 0.55% adds 1.84% to the game.

Those who have actually followed along with the math will have noticed that I have rounded downward. The reason for this is that there are strategic changes to be made as each of the progressives change in value and it’s virtually impossible to get them all correct. By lowering the estimates of what the return will be, we somewhat take this into account.

Now we look at aces with a kicker. This jackpot starts at $2,000. So, we return to the base game and enter $3,000 for aces with a kicker. This gives up a return of 99.23%, which is an increase of 1.36% over 10 $100 increments, or 0.13% for every $100 (again rounding downward)

For aces without a kicker, this starts out at $800. Increasing that to $1,800 from the base game gives us 101.37% — an increase of 3.50% over ten $100 increments. So, whenever this progressive increases by $100, I add 0.35%.

For four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker, this starts out at $800. Increasing that to $1,800 gives us 101.11% — an increase of 3.24% over ten $100 increments. So, whenever this progressive increases by $100, I add 0.32%.

I’m looking now at the straight flush, even though it does not have a progressive on the South Point machines. Sometimes, it does elsewhere. I’ll set the straight flush to $1,250 to get a return of 100.61% — an increase of 2.74% over ten $100 increments. So, whenever this progressive increase by $100, I add 0.27%.

The other two progressives, 2s-4s without a kicker along with 5s-Ks with or without a kicker, turn over fairly rapidly. These add some value, as you might collect $403 or $256 instead of $400 or $250 respectively, but these never get high enough to make that much of a “sit down and play or not” decision.

I assign 0.13% as the sum of these no matter how high they are. Why? Because that makes the base game an even 98% instead of 97.87%. This is a much easier number to work with, especially if I’m doing this in my head rather than with a calculator or some other means.

The final question you need to address is, “How high does it need to be before it’s worth playing?”

This depends on you. Since they have a number of 9/6 DDB games in the casino, which return 99.0%, the minimum sum of the progressives that you need is this figure. For players who wish to play a winning game, however, this isn’t nearly high enough.

You need 99.7% to make it an even game with the 0.3% slot club. Actually, that makes it slightly positive because you will also receive mailers and be able to participate in promotions while playing this game.

I can tell you I’ve seen it above the 99.7% level frequently. This is a decent game for dollar players to add to their repertoire at a casino with a number of good choices.

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If It Looks Too Good to be True . . .  

I just finished a two-part analysis of Maria Konnikova’s The Confidence Game where one of her warnings was (paraphrased) “If something looks too good to be true, it probably is. Very likely there’s something fishy going on.” Soon thereafter, a friend, “Sam,” who’s a knowledgeable video poker player, sent me the following pay schedule on a Bonus Poker game in the Palms High Limit Room:

(The numbers on the left represent the “new” pay table. The numbers on the right represent “standard” good Bonus Poker which is worth almost 99.2% if you play it appropriately. Compare the two sets of numbers and you’ll see why Sam was excited about the new game).

Royal Flush 800    800
Straight Flush 50    50
Four Aces 80 80
Four 2s-4s 40 40
Four 5s-Ks 25 25
Full House 9 8
Flush 7 5
Straight 5 4
Three of a Kind 4    3
Two Pair 2 2
Jacks or Better 1 1

The new game returns 111.2% and it can apparently be played from 25¢ through $5, Triple Play through Ten Play. My my!

Except, this was not a standalone pay schedule. It was on Dream Card.

Dream Card is a 10-coins-per-line game where you periodically get a Dream Card on the draw and that card turns into the best available card to go with the other four cards in the hand.

On Bonus Poker games, the occurrence of Dream Card has historically been 46.7%. If that same frequency is in effect on this game, that would turn this game into a 112% monster, or thereabouts.

Sam generously said that in exchange for my analysis of the game, I could play it, but I should please try not to kill it. After all, games this good don’t come around very often.

I told Sam that I wouldn’t play it at all. Although I’m allowed to play at the Palms now that Station Casinos owns it (and made it worse, in my opinion), I am severely restricted in the benefits I receive. The net effect is that I voluntarily stay away.

Still, on a 112% game where I could play up to $500 per deal, it wouldn’t matter much if I got benefits from the slot club or not. I would have major paydays as long as the machine and my welcome lasted.

The problem is that many of the slot department employees who now work there are the same employees who worked there back in the “good old days” and would instantly recognize me on sight. If I started hammering a machine, word would get to management within a few minutes.  If the game were really a mistake, either the machine would be pulled off the floor or I would be pushed out the door. So, it wouldn’t do any player any good if I tried the game at all. If it was a mistake, all my presence would do is help the Palms identify a problem. No thanks.

But I suggested to Sam that he play 100 hands on the game for the lowest possible stakes (which is 25¢ Triple Play costing $7.50 per deal) and keep track of the occurrences of the Dream Card. If it’s close to 46, which would be standard for Bonus Poker Dream Card, then he should go ahead and play it for the largest stakes he could afford. But if it’s a lot lower, we should do further research.

He did this. He actually played 200 hands and got 40 Dream Cards — which is less than half of the 93 or so he would get under the “normal” Bonus Poker Dream Card frequency. Whether playing 200 hands was statistically significant or not, he became convinced that it was and didn’t want to continue.

I told him I could contact a source I had at IGT — who is the guy both Michael Shackleford (the “Wizard of Odds”) and I use to get accurate information we can publish about games. But, I told Sam, if the game really was a mistake, likely my friend at IGT would notify the casino and that would be the end of it.

Sam said he wanted to know. He was likely done playing it and he didn’t see anybody else knowledgeable playing it, so almost certainly it wasn’t a mistake. Just “misleading,” because it would mean the frequency of Dream Cards wasn’t fixed for a game type.

It turns out that the game is worth 98.6%.

One of the unusual things about the game is that when you play five coins, the game is 7-5-4-3 Bonus Poker (returning 98.0%), but when you play 10-coins, it is 9-7-5-4. In the past, the Dream Card pay schedule was the same on the 5-coin and 10-coin versions, at least in my experience. Many of us would see the 7-5 Bonus pay schedule and not look any further.

Keep in mind that if the Dream Card frequency were zero, the return on this 111.2% game would be 55.6% (illegal in Nevada and many other places) because you’re betting 10-coins per line. I do not know the actual dream card frequency here, but it’s clearly lower than the normal Bonus Poker frequency, and higher than zero. Once I found out that the game is worth 98.6%, that’s all I needed to know.

It could well be that this is the best game in some casino someday where they have suitable-enough slot club and/or promotions to make this playable. Which is why the 98.6% number is important to me and may be useful information at that time. But until that time, it’s just a curiosity.

This again was a case of it looked to good to be true, and indeed, it wasn’t nearly as good as it looked. But we couldn’t know for sure until we did some further research.

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A Look at The Confidence Game – Part 2 of 2

 Two weeks ago, I explained why I found Maria Konnikova’s book, The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It . . . Every Time, worthy of study. Today I’m going to pick and choose among some of the parts of the book.

Konnikova has a Ph.D. in psychology and is a writer for The New Yorker and other publications. While this is not an academic treatise with numerous footnotes, there are a LOT of references to publications by academicians who have studied con artists and related subjects. I say this to note that this does not read like a novel. It’s a pleasant read. It’s a charming read. But it’s not easy going. I felt the struggle was worth it. If you don’t want to take the time to read it, a good hour-long interview may be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARUntx62Lqk

Most people know who the typical mark is: “You can’t cheat an honest man” or “To be conned you need to be greedy.” According to Konnikova, these descriptions are totally false. The biggest predictor to who can be conned is: “Were you conned before?”

That makes me a good candidate to be conned again — a statistic that doesn’t set well with me at all. Many people, it seems, can readily pick out the foolishness that makes other people good marks, but if the con is chosen perfectly can be victimized themselves.

There are lists of people who have been conned that circulate, for high prices, among the con artists. (Creating such a list out of whole cloth sounds like it would make for a perfect con — but I digress.)

Apparently emotional, vulnerable people are among those easily conned — those who have lost a loved one or a job or are in some sort of transition in their lives. The actual cons described in the book largely came before the era of social media — but now it’s a lot easier.

People regularly post on Facebook and elsewhere everything that would make them a good mark. Many con artists befriend their marks on Facebook under a different name and learn a lot of interesting things that make their job easier and more successful.

I’ve been off Facebook for some time now over the reported risks. This book makes me even more wary of going back. It’s hard for me to know if that makes we wisely sensible or just an old fuddy-duddy. I suspect there would be votes on both sides of this.

The book goes through the anatomy of a con. How you identify a mark — or a grifter. The set up. The play. The disappearance. Now I know how to pull off a con, but I’m not sure I’m any more prepared to do it. A con artist is indeed an “artist.” Someone who is polished at what he does.

One thing that really hit me is that many victims really think they are special. Yes, they know that others have been conned — but this time it’s the real deal. Yes, they know that most psychics are fake — but believe they can tell the difference and this remarkable person is special.

Apparently, most of us think we are better looking than average. Smarter than average. Drive better than average. You know — special. It’s statistically impossible, of course, for most of us to be smarter than average. I certainly feel I’m extraordinary in a number of ways. Don’t you feel that way about yourself?

If you feel that way about yourself, then it’s not too far a reach for you to believe that you deserve good things. And if something is too good to be true for most people, well, if I’m special, then it might not be too good for me. Someone with that mindset is ripe to be conned.

Several interviewers of Konnikova can’t resist asking her if Donald Trump is a con artist? Whether you like that kind of question probably depends on whether you’re a Trump hater or a Trump supporter. I never heard Konnikova give a definite “yes or no” answer to the question, but she clearly agrees that much of what he says and does is very similar to what con artists say and do.

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What Are Reasonable Expectations from Attending Video Poker Classes?

Author’s note:  Last week I began a “Part 1 of 2” series about Maria Konnikova’s book The Confidence Game. It is a reasonable expectation on your part that Part 2 would appear today.

It’s better for today’s article to appear one week before the classes begin rather than the day of. The review of the book is not so sensitive — so the review was pushed back.

Beginning Tuesday, July 3, at noon at the South Point, I’m starting another 10-week semester of free video poker classes (http://bobdancer.com/seminars). I’ve taught several dozens of these semesters. Many of you have attended one or more of them. Still, some people have never attended and want to know if it is worth their while.

The first thing you will learn is how to find a game where you have a reasonable chance of success. In modern casinos, there are several hundred varieties of video poker games available. Some are decent. Most are not.

In the first class, Jacks or Better, you’ll learn how to find the 99.54% version, and leave the 98.45% and 97.30% (and worse!) versions alone. To be sure, the house still has an advantage when the game pays “only” 99.54% — but with the slot club (0.30% at the South Point), mailers, promotions, etc., it’s very close to even. Even if the house has a slight advantage, it is MUCH better to play this version than one of the others.

Learning how to find a good Jacks or Better game gives you hints on how to find a good game of another type — such as Bonus Poker, Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus, etc., but each game has its own “magic numbers” with respect to how much you get paid for the full house and flush. And Deuces Wild games use an entirely different method of figuring out which one is best. Each week the classes start with “How do you find the best type?” of whatever game we are teaching that week.

The second thing you will learn is how to play these games once you’ve found them. Each game is played differently. If you attend several of the classes, you will learn how changes in the value of each of the pay schedule categories affect the strategy. For example, games with flushes returning 7-for-1 are played differently from those returning 6-for-1 which are played differently from those returning 5-for-1. You’ll have examples of all three this semester. The value of the straights, two pair, and even certain four of a kinds require systematic strategic changes as well.

You will learn things that are almost always true — such as, a suited QJ is more valuable than a suited KQ, and a KQ and KJ have exactly the same value. These things apparently are not common sense for many players. The explanation for “why” these things are true is very simple and most adults can understand once they hear.

Nobody expects you to master all the games after attending one of my classes. Many players attend a semester or two of classes to get a feel for what’s out there, and then they specialize in one or two of them. Different games appeal to different players and different games are available for different stakes. Figuring out which ones meet your preferences and bankroll requires gathering some information — but through these classes, that information is available.

You are introduced to two different “novelty” games — namely Ultimate X and Quick Quads. Many semesters we also teach Multi Strike — but the games are rotated, and that game didn’t make the cut this time. These games are popular — yet a bit more complicated than other games. I personally enjoy them and play them.

One week every semester covers one game at the advanced level — and this time that game is Bonus Poker. At the advanced level you learn why K♠ J♥ T♥ 8♣ 4♦ is played differently than K♠ J♥ T♥ 7♣ 4♦, and numerous other close plays. It’s not for beginners and some players believe life is too short to learn the game at this level. But I’m somebody who believes it’s important for my success that I attempt to master all games at this level.

In the last class, “Secrets of a Video Poker Winner” which will be taught on September 4, we will cover for the first time how the 2017 tax bill changes your liability for W2Gs. Nobody likes taxes — but at a minimum you need to be aware of how the changes in the law affect you.

The last thing to discuss is what the class will not do. You will not be able to sit in class for a few hours and suddenly become a video poker expert. It doesn’t work that way. To get good requires a lot of study and it takes time. You will be provided with a roadmap that you can follow, but how closely you adhere to that roadmap is totally up to you.

Still, even if it’s not your goal to become an expert, learning a little will allow you to get a lot more bang for your gambling dollar. Video poker is a game where players with average intelligence can become good enough to gamble fairly even with the house. That’s simply not true for most other gambling games. But it does require study to get good enough to be at this level and for many, these classes are a good place to start.

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Which is Better?

Back when I was in graduate school studying economics, professors would often compare Model A versus Model B, where the two models were identical except for one specific difference. The professor then addressed a situation where the two models would yield different results, and so we learned what feature of the models led to what kind of results.

The real world isn’t like that, of course. Virtually any two things you could want to compare would differ in far more than one area. Still, it’s a useful type of exercise. Sometimes you can extrapolate the results of this kind of exercise and get real world conclusion, and today we’re going to try to do just that.

Assume there are two must-be-there-to-win drawings at different casinos at 7 p.m. next Friday. The casinos are similar in size with equivalent games and slot clubs, 10 winners sharing $xxxxx, the prize structure is identical, and it requires $500 coin-in to earn each drawing ticket. You know from experience that you can play enough so that you have a reasonable chance at being called.

The only relevant difference is that at Casino A, the first person called (and is present within 90 seconds) gets the top prize, the second person gets the second prize, etc. At Casino B, all ten winners pick an envelope so the order you were called is of no importance. Which structure do you prefer?

Before we can answer that, assume the actual number of drawing tickets from the players drawn this particular night, sorted from highest to lowest rather than in the actual order selected, is as follows:

1,003
127
83
60
51
47
31
28
19
2

If you’re the guy with 1,003 tickets, meaning you played more than $500,000 for this drawing and nobody else played as much as $70,000, it’s much better for you to compete in Casino A. You’re not guaranteed to be called first. In fact, before the drawing, you aren’t a lock to be called at all. But most of the time that you play this much you’re going to be picked early on and your prizes will be bigger on average at Casino A.

For similar reasons, if you are the guy with two tickets, you were extremely fortunate to be called at all. There were likely a few hundred entrants with fewer than ten tickets and you were the lucky one who was chosen this time. On those rare occasions when you do get chosen, you’re more likely to be one of the last ones drawn than one of the first ones. For you, Casino B represents your better option.

We can extrapolate from this. If you tend to play more than average, the better the Casino A structure benefits you. Conversely, if you tend to play less than average, the better Casino B structure benefits you.

Anyone who has paid attention to lots of drawings knows that occasionally the guy with one or two tickets wins the big prize and the guy with the most tickets more than occasionally gets completely shut out. There is a large random element to drawings.

While the preceding paragraph is undoubtedly true, don’t make the mistake of concluding that how many tickets you have in the drum is irrelevant. The more tickets you have, the better your chances are to win. You just need to recognize that having a better chance doesn’t mean you’re 100% certain to win, and having a slim chance doesn’t mean no chance at all.

Also, for those in the Casino B drawing:  The first guy gets his choice of all ten envelopes, the second guy gets to pick from the remaining nine, all the way down to the tenth guy getting whatever is left. Usually by the time the last guy gets his remaining envelope, the best prize is already gone. It can seem at that point like it would have been far better to be chosen first and have all ten envelopes to choose among.

And that is an illusion. Assuming the envelopes are indistinguishable from each other (a typical condition, but not one that’s guaranteed to be true every time), there is no advantage to going first. The last-drawn guy has the same 1-in-10 chance of getting the biggest prize as the first-drawn guy does.

As a final factor to consider I want to look at how well you’ve done at one of these casinos recently. If you’ve won first prize twice in the past three months at one of the casinos, then the other casino is a better option for the next few months. Do not fall into the trap of believing “Casino A is my lucky casino because I win more there.” A far bigger concern is casinos can and do remove your welcome when you win frequently.

Players can argue until they’re blue in the face that these kinds of things shouldn’t matter. But in the real world they do. So, act accordingly.

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A Measure of Success

On the website gamblingwithanedge.com, there are numerous things posted — including my blogs and all of the GWAE podcasts. There are other bloggers on that site as well. One of the features of that site is that there is room for comment.

In a comment to my March 27, 2018 blog, “Liz” wrote, in part:

Many gamblers think they are “advantage players”, meaning they think they have an edge. I see six classes:
1. Gamblers like Dancer who have the edge but won way more than average
2. Gamblers who have the edge but won way less than average or even lost because they didn’t play enough or ran out of money

The remaining categories dealt with those who do not have an edge. When I first read this, I wondered if indeed I was in the first category and, if so, what did it mean. That’s what today’s blog is about.

However you define these things, there’s got to be a category in the middle of these two. The first one says “way more” and the second one says “way less.” Surely there are APs who have won less than “way more” and more than “way less.” This middle category is likely bigger than the other two put together.

How much you win each year is income. How much you’ve won and held onto is gambling bankroll which is a measure of wealth. I assume Liz was speaking about accumulated bankroll.

Accumulated bankroll is a lifetime achievement award. I’ve been doing this since 1994. I have been successful since then and have continued adding to my accumulated wealth. It stands to reason that I would have accumulated more than someone who started in 2015.

How much you started with surely is a factor. I started with $6,000 back in 1994. Many other players have started with more.

How good of a saver you are is important. In the years that I’ve been playing, it’s been both me by myself and me with two wives (at different times.) All three of us are very frugal. For every $100,000 we brought in, we spent perhaps $40,000 and invested the rest. Over decades, that added up.

Without going into details, going through a divorce is detrimental to the bankroll.

Someone with extra income that they deposit into the bankroll account makes that account increase faster than someone without extra income. That income could be from a job, alimony, inheritance, sale of an asset, royalties, or selling your services. Social security or disability payments or retirement income may be added in as well. I’m sure there are other sources of income that I’m leaving out, but those who have some accumulate bankroll faster than those who don’t. And the mix of income sources is different for every player.

Your investment strategy (and results) matter. Timing matters. If you invested $100,000 in the stock market in 2003 you have quite a bit more than if you invested that same amount in 2000. Even so, if you’ve kept that money in until today, in either case you have more than $200,000 today.  

How good are you at avoiding taxes? Tax avoidance is legal. Tax evasion isn’t.

If you’ve had “average luck” over your playing career, your results will be average if that average result happened on all of your stakes. But if you’ve been very lucky for quarters and somewhat unlucky for dollars, overall you might be in the hole. In my Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography, I wrote of a six-month period where I was luckier than average on pretty large machines.

There’s always the question of skill versus luck and I don’t know how to come up with an exact number. In drawings, I’ve won more than $1 million over the years. But I’ve participated in a lot of them. I only entered when I thought it was a good deal. I’ve read the rules closely and paid attention to ways to gain an advantage over players who haven’t read the rules. I’ve bent tickets in casinos where that seemed to work. I put physical tickets into full barrels just before the drawing took place, knowing full well that the drum was too full to thoroughly mix the tickets. I’ve played for the drawings when other things were going on as well — such as point multipliers, or additional drawings, or earning annual tier credits, or something. How can anyone say how much luck was involved in my results and how much skill?

There are no records anywhere of exactly how many tickets have been in each barrel and whether my results have been better or worse than average in drawings. There are also players who play $500 a week and enter the same drawings where I play $200,000 a week, and to those people, it appears that I’m the luckiest guy in the world.

Keeping your welcome in casinos is a big part of success. Over time, all successful players lose their welcome at various places.  Avoiding or delaying your exodus is valuable, as is talking your way back in.

Belonging to a relevant network of informed players is valuable. There’s a balance between sharing enough information to stay networked and sharing everything. There are people you can swear to secrecy and those you can’t.

Just plain scouting is valuable. In every casino, things are different today than they were a year ago. If you’re not aware of those differences, you can’t make informed decisions.

Players differ in their risk aversion. For a given bankroll, some players will bet bigger than others. Some of these bigger players get wiped out, but most don’t. The smaller players won’t get wiped out, but they won’t earn very much either. There are disadvantages to wherever you position yourself on this.

I’m going to talk about this more next week, including how close to the cheating line you are willing to go. Do you ever cross it? Some players have prospered using techniques that the rest of us consider “foul play.” But they have prospered nonetheless.

Liz’s paradigm has some merit, but it’s impossible to figure out these things exactly. Every AP has a different game plan than every other one, and their results are very hard to compare.

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Looking for Love in All the Wrong Places

I’ve been teaching video poker classes for more than 20 years. A key part of each class is answering questions from the students. Some questions indicate the student is just starting out on the playing-video-poker journey, and some only come from students who have been studying for a while.

The questions I want to mention today are ones that indicate the students are looking in the totally wrong direction for useful hints on winning.

Some might consider these questions “stupid.” I don’t. If you’re trying to figure out how to do something, it’s appropriate to look in all directions. Smart students listen to the answers, make a decision about whether whomever answers the question is knowledgeable or not, and then decides whether to use the information.

Here are some of those questions:

     1. How much money do you win or lose before changing machines? — Not a factor in my decision. I’m looking toward expected win in the future and not at actual results in the past.

     2. How much money do you put in at one time? — It doesn’t really matter. I put in “even” amounts to make record-keeping easier — like $200 or $1,000 or maybe $5,000, depending on the stakes. For tax and other reasons, keeping good record is important.

     3. If you cash out tickets before they get too big, does the machine think a new player has just sat down? — The machine doesn’t care who’s playing. It’s just dealing cards.

     4. Do you use the amount of cash the last player cashed out as any kind of measure for whether or not this is a good machine to play? — No. Especially since it doesn’t have to mean anything at all. Someone could have inserted ten $100 bills into a machine and immediately cashed out. (I’ve done that to create tickets while I’m waiting for a hand-pay.) The machine would read it cashed out for $1,000, even though no hands were played. How is that useful information?

     5. What is your favorite game to play? — It depends on how much the game returns when played perfectly?  How closely to perfectly do I play? What does the slot club return? Are there any promotions going on?  Do I need to play a certain amount to reach a tier level or earn mailers? Etc.

A key part of this answer is that each game type (Deuces Wild, Double Double Bonus, etc.) comes in a variety of pay schedules — a few good, most bad.

I am sympathetic to those who take the approach, “If I try to learn more than one game I get mixed up, so I always play Jacks or Better whatever the pay schedule is.” For some people, this might well be the most intelligent approach. Only you know your strengths and weaknesses insofar as learning several pay schedules go.

     6. What is the best time of day to play? — This is a more insightful question than the previous ones. The machines themselves are the same, but I prefer playing the graveyard shift because it’s often easier to get the machines I want since most people are in bed, it’s less smoky, and the atmosphere in the casino is often more relaxed. I understand that for some people, playing at 3 a.m. is completely out of the question, whether it works for me or not. But if your life and schedule is flexible enough to play during those hours, I recommend it.

     7. What’s the best casino to play at? — Again, a good question, but not one that has a unique best answer. No casino is better than every other casino at all games and denominations. Some casinos have better games but lesser restaurants. Some casinos include child care. Some casinos attract blue collar patrons while others make white collar patrons feel more at home. Since I’m a senior citizen, married, and a player who is more comfortable playing for higher stakes than many others, whatever place is best for me may or may not be best for whomever is asking the question.

     8. How much am I giving up if I always play KK from KK446? — (This is far more specific than I intend. I get hundreds of this type of “What does it cost?” kind of question.)  The short answer is “It depends.” A more specific answer necessitates knowing the game, pay schedule, and stakes you’re playing. In general, I’m not a fan of the “What’s the least I can do and still get acceptable results?” approach.

This is also a question that you should learn to look up yourself. Good video poker software is readily available and inexpensive. There are 2.6 million different starting hands in hundreds of different games. It’s simply too much information to obtain and store without using some electronic support.

Although 2.6 million is a pretty big number, there are a lot of “apparent” duplicates — including 144 unique ways to have KK446. The actual number of completely unique hands is 130,000+, and even then you’re going to have more than one case of KK446.

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He Screwed Me!

I rarely play two video poker machines at once. One exception is when the South Point runs their “Money Madness” promotion, where they have a casino-wide progressive that must hit between $10,000 and $25,000 (along with a smaller progressive as well.)

If you’re playing and somebody else hits the progressive, which is usually going to be the case, you still get $25 in free play as a consolation prize. So, playing on both my card and Bonnie’s doubles my chances for that $25 bonus. And if the game I’m playing generates relatively frequent W2Gs, that’s all the more reason to want a second machine.

One of those situations occurred last February 19, which was Presidents’ Day, and the casino was offering 2x points, which was worth 0.6% there. Other casinos were offering 6x points, which amounts to the same thing, but the South Point has a bigger variety of better games to play.

I got there about 2 a.m., planning on playing twelve or so hours if I could. When I was younger, I planned on longer shifts, but only being able to play twelve hours at a time now is hardly the biggest compromise I’ve had to make as a senior citizen.

There are several acceptable games to play on such a day. One of them is Ultimate X where they have two 25¢ Ten Play machines. It’s a lucrative pay schedule, but it’s $25-per-pull price tag and sky-high volatility makes it more expensive than many players wish to tackle. Still, they are popular machines with many players playing 5¢ or 10¢ variations which have considerably lesser pay schedules.

About 15 minutes into me playing both machines, a guy who I’ll call Ed, said, “You’re not really planning on playing both of those all night, are you?”

That’s not at all the same as saying, “May I play one of those machines?” to which my answer was always going to be, “Of course.” I appreciate that the South Point sponsors both my podcast and my classes and quite simply I’m not going to get into any argument on the floor that might encourage the bosses to conclude that I’m too much trouble.

Whether Ed’s question met my definition as a proper request, it’s possible he meant it as such. I asked him if he wanted to play one and he nodded, so I picked the machine on which I wished to continue, played off my multipliers on the other, cashed out, and consolidated.

After some initial pleasantries, I went back to playing my machine. Although I can play quite a few different games at a high level, one price of playing so many is that if I don’t concentrate on what I’m doing, I can easily get the strategies mixed up.

Ed, however, liked to talk.

Talk, talk, talk, talk, talk.

Soon after he got there, somebody nearby got a jackpot, so there were extra casino workers around. He asked anybody who was listening whether they heard about the actress who stabbed her husband that morning? Nobody had heard. Ed said he thinks it was “Reese somebody.” The floorman ventured “Witherspoon?” Ed replied, “No silly. With her knife!”

Did I mention he never shut up?

After the initial couple of minutes, I simply hunkered down in front of the machine and ignored everything he said. He’d ask direct questions, such as, “Why did you play the hand that way?” or “I heard it was your birthday last week. Anything interesting happen?” or “Have you had any big jackpots on these machines?” I didn’t respond to any of these. I couldn’t make him shut up, but if I didn’t answer back, perhaps he’d take the hint after an hour or three.

He decided to tell me about a recent situation when he played two machines simultaneously at a casino in Laughlin. There was a hot seat promotion, where $100 in free play is awarded randomly every so many minutes, and he was playing on both his card and his wife’s card, even though she was 100 miles away.

He was asked to give up one of the machines and he said he was holding one for his wife. The player was persistent, but Ed wouldn’t budge. The player went to the shift manager, who came back and said that house policy was that you could only play one machine at a time if somebody else wished to play one. Ed’s name was now recorded by the casino and if this happens again, he will be restricted from the club.

So, Ed moved over and let the other player have one of the machines. The player inserted $5, played one hand, lost, and then stood up and told Ed, “That’s my limit. You can have the machine back again.”

“You went to all that trouble and you only wanted to play five dollars?” Ed’s voice became animated. Even so, I kept playing my machine without comment.

“This guy screwed me!” Ed ranted. “Five lousy dollars was all he wanted to play and now the casino has my name down as a trouble maker. It’s so unfair!”

While I was NOT going to discuss it with Ed at the time, which would have kept him going for another hour or two protesting how he got screwed, I think Ed brought it on himself.

He lied to keep an extra machine, basically taking a shot. Sometimes when you take a shot, things backfire. That’s what happened here.

You cannot wait until everything plays out and then demand a Mulligan in order to try again. You have to make your decisions before you know exactly what’s going to happen.

And if your decision turns out badly? Well sometimes gambling works that way and sometimes life works that way. Nobody screwed him. I think the phrase, “Hoist on his own petard!” is apt here. And since he wouldn’t shut up, I can’t say I felt sorry for him at all!