Last November, I played during a promotion at Caesars Atlantic City. It was a juicy promotion — and I took a bath. I mentioned in an article that the best video poker I could find for high stakes was 9/6 Double Double Bonus (98.98%). A reader responded that they have 9/7 Double Bonus (99.11%) for $10 on a few machines. Although the DB game pays more than the DDB game, it’s much more difficult to play well. As it turns out, I played 10/7 DB for many hundreds of hours back when I was first starting — eventually co-wrote a Winners Guide on that game — and have taught classes (Beginners, Intermediate, and, occasionally, Advanced) several dozen times. In the past few years, I played the dollar version of that game at Arizona Charlie’s Decatur and Four Queens until they took the games out at both places. Suffice it to say, I know the game well and the extra difficulty of DB over DDB is a non-factor for me.
I looked and couldn’t find these machines. How hard could it be? There aren’t that many video poker machines in the High Limit Slot area at Caesars. The reader sounded knowledgeable, so I looked harder. I found the game, but it was not what I was expecting.
The game is single-line Good Times Pay for $5. If you bet five coins, you get regular 9/7 DB. If you bet between six and ten coins, you get multipliers on every hand. These do not affect the 99.11% return on the well-played game, but the multipliers do greatly affect the variance.
On the 10-coin version, for example, there are 30 boxes from which the multiplier may be randomly drawn. Fifteen of those boxes are 1x. Ten of those boxes are 2x. And the remaining five boxes are one each: 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, and 7x. The mean value of the multipliers is 2x, and since you play 10 coins to earn these multipliers instead of the normal five, the overall return isn’t affected.
You learn the value of the multiplier as soon as you bet and before you select the cards to hold. For knowledgeable players, the size of the multiplier doesn’t affect how the hands are played. But it can easily affect the emotions. Consider a 6x multiplier when dealt AAA82. You’re going to hold the aces, of course, but if they connect, you’ll have a $24,000 jackpot rather than the typical $4,000 the hand regularly pays. That can get the heart pumping a little.
It’s easy to dream of getting the royal flush with a 7x multiplier, which pays a very attractive $140,000 on these machines, but you only get that multiplier 1-in-30 royals. Because you hold flush kickers in this game, royals only come about every 48,000 hands or so — making the cycle for the royal with a 7x multiplier 1,440,000 hands. I am almost certainly never going to play that many hands on these machines — but it could happen. And if I’m forced to put up with a 6x multiplier instead, winning a measly $120,000, I’ll find a way to deal with it. Not even Bob Dancer runs well all of the time!
The 9/7 version of the game is played the same as the 10/7 version with two major differences. On a hand like AA442, you hold two pair when playing 10/7 and just the aces when playing 9/7. This is a major mistake when played incorrectly — around $1.80 times whatever multiplier you have for the $50 bet.
The second difference consists of a 4-card flush with two high cards along with a pair of kings, queens, or jacks (like K KQ73). You hold the kings in 10/7 and the 4-flush in 9/7. This mistake is not worth much —less than two cents times the multiplier for the same $50 bet. Still, I’ve made a history of seeking the correct play even when smaller than this, and see no reason to stop now.
There are a few less common differences that aren’t worth much. On this trip, I ignored them. If another promotion comes about that’s at least as good as the one I’m playing, I just might study the relevant section of the Winners Guide and play with the more-accurate strategy.
My trip was scheduled from Friday February 20 to Monday evening, February 23. There was free play to pick up and a play-up promotion in February. Unfortunately, that part of the country got slammed with a severe snow-and-wind situation and I wasn’t able to fly home until Wednesday morning, February 25. The play up allowed enough optional iterations so playing for an extra day and a half was a feasible option. It was no problem getting my room-comp extended.
I didn’t count the number of times I was dealt a high pair (other than aces) and a four-flush with two high cards, but it must have been a couple of dozen times or so. With average luck on 24 trials, I should have drawn a flush 4.5 times. This time, however, I drew the flush zero times — throwing away a high pair every time. With an average-sized multiplier, I threw away at least $1,200 — and surely some of the time the high pair would have turned into trips, full houses, or (it’s a long shot) quads.
It crossed my mind that since going for the flush was only worth pennies more than holding the high pair, and the play certainly wasn’t successful on this trip, that maybe I should start holding the high pair. I know many players would have made this adjustment (if they weren’t already holding the high pair to start with!)
While the subject did cross my mind, I didn’t act on it. I continued to hold the four-flush every time — and will do so in the future. I believe the right play is the right play — even when I run badly. My career is based on my strongly held belief that over time it will even out, and making the best play every time will lead to better results than making lesser plays.
Some of you will follow my lead on this and some won’t. Without calling any of you names, the saying that starts, “You can lead a horse to water . . .) seems appropriate here.
