I do think this is what will happen. Like I said before the real shock is going to be a year from now when the 2015 premiums are announced. The 2014 premiums are based upon projections from models of who the government and the insurance companies thought would likely enroll. They were counting on a lot of young healthy folks. From what has leaked out so far it looks like older sick folks have been the ones enrolling at a higher rate than expected and young healthy folks are enrolling at a lower rate than expected. That means overall premiums will shoot way up in 2015 as will the cost of the share of premiums the government pays through the subsides. That is what they mean by on the hook.
It all seemd very predictable to me. Obama was way too optimistic on the number of younger folks that would find the insurance appealing. The co-pays and deductibles of these policies are just too high to be attractive to younger folks just starting out in adult life.
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Originally posted by: jatki99
Well this is a pretty depressing article on how the price of Obamacare may go up even more. It's a piece on the actuary tables concerning policy rates increases for '15 and how the govt. may be on the hook if not enough younger, healthy folks sign up. I don't recall ever hearing the the fed govt. having to make up any difference if revenues fall short? At least that's how i read this paragraph from the article..
"hile the government has established certain risk protections to help offset the possibility of adverse selection for insurers for the first three years of Obamacare, without younger, healthier people in the insurance pool, the actuaries say federal officials could be on the hook for larger-than-expected payments under the risk program. And the ripple effects would likely continue beyond next year. "
https://www.cnbc.com/id/101180198
EDIT to add; After rereading I suppose it means the fed will have to pay an even larger portion of subsidy's? I would hate to think it would be a direct cash payment in lieu of a profit.