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History of Blackjack

This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.

A.C. says: This is a solid treatment of the debated history of blackjack. I say debated, because I’ve looked into this history, predominantly for my contribution to our book The Art of Gambling Through the Ages, and there are several versions and disagreements. One of the opinions I most trust is that of David Schwartz, who’s referenced in this article, so this is as good a version as you’re likely to find. Sean Chaffin covers the early work done on playing blackjack optimally, including the first basic strategy developed by the “Four Horsemen” (four Army engineers stationed at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland) and, soon after, the concept of card counting published in Edward O. Thorp’s Beat the Dealer. The article concludes with a mention of playing blackjack online. It should be noted that the casino edge in most online games can’t be overcome; the decks are reshuffled after every hand, thus removing the “dependent-trials” aspect that makes it possible to beat them. Then again, minimums tend to be much lower and those who play casually for entertainment might appreciate not having to push out the $15-per-hand that has become the norm in the Las Vegas casinos.

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Adventure at Railroad Pass – Part 2 of 2

My play at Railroad Pass had largely stopped. While they still had dollar $1 9/5 Triple Bonus Poker Plus with a 0.75% slot club on Wednesdays, I could only play 400-hands-per-hour on those coin-droppers. I had earlier played dollar 8/5 Bonus Poker Wheel Poker (99.59%), which was much more lucrative because it required $30 per hand to fully load. This was worth more, and was a lot more fun to play.

When that game was pulled, I pretty much retired from Railroad Pass, except for playing enough to keep my account active (at least one point every six months) so that my comp dollars didn’t evaporate.

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Durango deal done; Apollo snows NV regulators (again)

Making good on a promise and a plan, Station Casinos offloaded 21 acres next to Durango Station (ab0ve) last week for $24 million. Not a bad score. The buyer is Ovation Development Corp., which will help seed Durango’s customer base by building residential properties on the adjoinging site, just as Station hoped. Ovation, an offshoot of the Molasky family of companies, is also building senior-friendly housing right behind Sunset Station. In the now-distant past, Station would try to shop vast tracts of land at one great gulp but didn’t find takers. Its new, more-selective, bite-size strategy is working, as seen at Wildfire Fremont, Durango and Sunset. Next up, Cactus Lane, where Station has much more land than it needs, having doubled down on its real estate position there recently. We still think it’s quixotic to go up against South Point but it will be very interesting to watch.

Having sacked and pillaged Caesars Entertainment infamously, Apollo Management told Nevada regulators it had learned its lesson and would be a better steward of Venelazzo. Has the Apollo leopard really changed its spots? Seems not. We haven’t heard anything untoward coming out of Sheldon Adelson‘s old place (yet) but Apollo’s attempt to merge the Kroger and Albertsons supermarket chains is turning out to be classic private equity rapine. You think grocery prices are bad now? Wait til this deal goes through. It hasn’t even closed yet and Apollo is strip-mining both companies. Albertsons announced a $4 billion “special dividend” on Nov. 7—a sum 57 times larger than the regular quarterly dividend, depleting the chain’s $2.5 billion cash on hand and saddling it with $1.5 billion in additional debt. Moody’s Investor Service accordingly downgraded Albertsons credit rating. There goes one-third of Albertsons’ market cap—along with the ability to “meaningfully compete” with Kroger and others.

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MGM: Change partners and dance; 888 TKO’d

It’s Blackstone Group out, Vici Properties in at MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay, as Vici exercised its option over the half (OK, 49.9%) that it didn’t already own. Blackstone is $2.8 billion richer as a result, including $700 million in profit. MGM Resorts International will pay $309 million a year in rent. Despite leverage concerns, Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli wrote that “the elimination of a messy joint venture structure in an otherwise easy to understand/forecast business model” was a leading positive. He added, “while the transaction has several fundamentally positive merits, we question whether this transaction would have been feasible/executed if not for the fact that ~55% of the total purchase price was locked in at an inexpensive cost of debt.” It also increases Vici’s stranglehold on the Las Vegas Strip … but we defer to the experts.

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Adventure at Railroad Pass – Part 1 of 2

Railroad Pass was built some 90 years ago. Insofar as Las Vegas casinos go, that’s ancient. Railroad Pass isn’t actually in Las Vegas, of course. It’s in Henderson, almost to Boulder City. At the time this story happened, almost 20 years ago, they actually had a traffic signal in the middle of the 95 freeway to get into the place. In addition, it was owned by the MGM – Mirage corporation, although totally separate from that players club. Today that signal is gone, and MGM no longer owns a piece of the Pass.

A lot of the machines were coin-droppers. With a 0.25% slot club, I favored dollar 9/5 Triple Bonus Poker Plus (99.80%) on Wednesdays, which was 3x point day. I couldn’t get many dollars per hour through the machine. When credits on the machine exceeded 400, dollar coins fell into the hopper. Quad 2s, 3s, and 4s ($600) were a hand pay, as were four aces ($1,199). It was about a $20-per-hour play, but they had mailers and comps which added considerably.

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Strip flattens, LV locals rebound; Hyatt’s Vegas Dream

That great Las Vegas recovery on the Strip suddenly flattened in October but new signs of vitality were evident in the local-gambler sphere. Las Vegas Strip casinos grossed $706 million, almost dead-even with the year before. Locals-derived win, meanwhile, surged 11%. Downtown‘s $90.5 million was a 19% vault, while an 18% leap happened on the Boulder Strip ($80 million). Similarly robust numbers were reported by miscellaneous Clark County ($143.5 million, +9%), Laughlin ($45 million, +10%) and Mesquite ($16 million, +7.5%). North Las Vegas lagged somewhat, up 3% to $23.5 million. Further afield, Reno was up 3% to $64.5 million, while new Legends Casino in Sparks continues to fuel play, hopping 14% in town to $16.5 million. Lake Tahoe got in on the fun, climbing 13% to $18 million and Wendover was up 6% to $23 million.

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Risky mandate in Macao; Penn’s problems; Debacle at Mirage

That sowing sound you hear is casino executives from Las Vegas to Hong Kong heaving a gargantuan sigh of relief that all the incumbent gaming concessions in Macao were renewed last weekend, leaving Genting Group still on the outside looking in. Some Wall Street analysts made fools of themselves by rushing out on a limb and predicting Genting would make the cut. Considering that it had no presence on the ground in Macao, Genting’s bid was pretty rash and we’re not at all surprised that Chinese authorities ultimately backhanded it. But it was useful for putting a scare into the senior concessionaires and getting them to pony up billions upon billions of dollars for non-gambling attractions that are probably not going to be very remunerative, barring a drastic transformation in the makeup of the Macao-bound traveler. (Maybe that Hello Kitty theme park mooted by SJM Holdings will be making a comeback.) As The Associated Press put it, “the requirement to spend on theme parks, music and sports adds to financial pressure at a time when revenue has plunged under anti-virus restrictions.”

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Coney Island casino?; Mirage volcano scrapped

While New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and Las Vegas Sands continue to dither about how they might, maybe, possibly have something brewing in Flushing, other players—much lower-profile ones—have been making a move. A consortium of the Chickasaw Indians, Saratoga Casino Holdings, Thor Equities and Legends are pitching a “comprehensive casino, hotel, and entertainment proposal” for Coney Island. Which we think would be a logical spot for gaming and would drive more entertainment dollars to the Rockaway area, especially in cold-weather months. Now, this foursome doesn’t have the name-brand cachet of Caesars Entertainment or Wynn Resorts, both of whom have dibbed Manhattan, but the former is at war with the Theatre District and the latter is evincing cold feet about the whole thing.

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