Top Gun: Maverick. OK, we’re kidding. But not entirely. Due to the Motion Picture Academy‘s byzantine, ranked-choice voting for Best Picture, the $1.5 billion-grossing Tom Cruise spectacle (+1000 on DraftKings) could rack up enough second- and third-place votes to nab the top prize. That being said, oddsmakers still have this as the year of Everything Everywhere All At Once (-280). We could be set for a reprise of 1978, when Star Wars ruled the box office but Annie Hall ran the table at the Oscars. (Neither film has fared badly with posterity.) Everything Everywhere All At Once scores the Academy trifecta of being a commercial hit—a $104 million return on a $14 million outlay—offbeat and upbeat, a combination that reliably spells “win.” The second closest rival to Everything is the equally splendid but downbeat The Banshees of Inisherin (+300) and it’s having a tough time closing the gap in the betting lines. As for Steven Spielberg‘s The Fabelmans, its momentum appears to have peaked at the Golden Globes lovefest. It’s now at +1200 and Spielberg’s Best Director odds have faded to +120.
Continue reading And the Oscar goes to …Low Variance or High Variance Video Poker – Which is Your Style?
This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.
Continue reading Low Variance or High Variance Video Poker – Which is Your Style?A.C. says: You’ve probably heard the term “variance” in discussions and analyses of gambling games. This article helps you better understand what it means. Variance is an assessment of risk. In video poker, the risk of suffering a big loss is greater when variance is high. Correspondingly, high-variance schedules enhance the chances of getting a big win. Many players gravitate toward the higher-variance games because of that big-win factor, but those games often have lower overall return percentages. For example, a typical bar selection might include higher-variance 7/5 Double Double Bonus returning 96.71% and lower-variance 6/5 Bonus Poker returning 96.87%. It’s not a big discrepancy, but Bonus Poker is still the better game, yet it tends to get less play.
Boyd buoyed; Penn damned with faint praise; Mega-Jottings
It was a good day yesterday for Boyd Gaming as it trotted out its 4Q22 numbers. Cash flow healthily overshot Wall Street expectations and was powered by, among other things, better-than-2019 visitation by that Boyd mainstay, players from Hawaii. Wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, “The growth in Locals was driven by destination business (tourists and out-of-towners) and non-gaming operations (we note that these trends have to be very positive for Red Rock Resorts who has yet to report) and continued strength in play from its core customers.” Despite softness in Louisiana and Mississippi, Boyd improved its numbers in the Midwest and South, helped along by strength in the online segment and by performance-based management fees from successful, new Sky River Casino near Sacramento.
Continue reading Boyd buoyed; Penn damned with faint praise; Mega-JottingsA peek at Penn; DraftKings retreats, Aruze tumbles
Wall Street analysts got an early look at Penn Entertainment‘s 4Q22 earnings, which were mildly adverse and poorer than The Street expected, and which point to a flat trajectory going forward through the early summer. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli described the preview as “realistic, though likely uninspiring guidance.” Revenues were 3% down in 4Q22, revenue was $1.4 billion and cash flow slipped 5%. To encourage stock analysts (per Santarelli), “Management noted challenging weather in December, while also noting strength in the final week of the month and a continuation of strength into January. The Deutsche Bank analyst blamed the underperformance on new competition, “as well as the impact of same-store revenue headwinds on margins.” The interactive segment (excluding Barstool Sports) also pulled down the numbers somewhat, which some fingered on John “Mattress Mack” McIngvale and his big World Series win.
Continue reading A peek at Penn; DraftKings retreats, Aruze tumblesOhio dips; Bally’s unplugged; Macao booms
Here’s one for those of you who believe gambling is facing a recession: Revenue in Ohio fell 2% last month (yes, it took the Buckeye State until February to report December’s numbers). The haul was $193 million, which was still 14% better than the end of 2019, if that’s any consolation. MGM Northfield Park maintained its market-leading status with $24 million, up 5.5%. But there was a surprise challenger: Jack Cleveland, close behind with $23.5 million, an 8.5% gain. Other racinos that were revenue-positive (like MGM Northfield) were Scioto Downs, up 2% to $19.5 million and doughty Hollywood Mahoning Valley, up 3% to $13 million. Miami Valley Gaming was flat at $19 million.
Continue reading Ohio dips; Bally’s unplugged; Macao boomsThis Made Me Uncomfortable
Bonnie and I were at Harrah’s in Cherokee, NC for a Caesars Seven Stars trip. Cherokee is in the Smoky Mountains and a world away from Las Vegas. Plus, they have $5 NSU Deuces Wild.
For a Seven Stars trip, you get up to $1,200 airfare, $500 in resort credit, and transportation to and from the airport. The airport means either Asheville (about 50 miles away, but not a direct flight) or Atlanta, which is 160 miles away (which is much easier to get to). We usually fly into Atlanta.
Continue reading This Made Me UncomfortableNevada closes 2022 roaring; Lombardo’s big blunder
Gambling grosses for last month have been tallied and it’s an understatement to say they’re boffo. Nevada casinos raked in $1.3 billion, a 14% leap over 2021. You can see why we think that—as it pertains to gaming—a recession is “the most overhyped narrative of the last year.” It simply refuses to manifest itself. That’s especially true of the Las Vegas Strip, which vaulted 25% to $814 million. Downtown took it on the kisser, down 7% to $69 million. Hopefully, new product at the Fremont Hotel can help reverse that before it becomes a trend. The Boulder Strip also had a rough month, slipping 8% to $64 million.
However, long-anemic North Las Vegas was up 5% to $25 million and miscellaneous Clark County was flat at $137 million. Laughlin hopped 8% to $32 million, while Utah-facing Mesquite and Wendover were bonny, jumping 11.5% and 20%, respectively ($16 million and $22 million). Snowbirds avoided Lake Tahoe, which tumbled 16% to $15.5 million whilst Reno was up 6% to $59 million. A lot of mixed signals, yes, but more pluses than minuses.
Continue reading Nevada closes 2022 roaring; Lombardo’s big blunderCase Bets
What do you do when there’s no really big story of the day? Bust out an order of Case Bets, what else. Let the fun begin …
Rivers Portsmouth has already had a come-to-Jesus moment after its pro-smoking stance revolted patrons. (One activist likened the existence of a smoking section in the casino to a “peeing section” in a public pool.) Well sorta. Rush Street Gaming‘s rather lame excuse was to erect signage designating where smoking can and cannot be practiced … as though the smoke itself will obey the signs. And guests continue to complain. The pervasive smoke has contributed heavily to Rivers’ dismal 3.2 rating on Google. “I won’t be back because my post-COVID asthma and congenital heart condition cannot be around smoking,” grumbled one customer.
Continue reading Case BetsHow Many Decks in Blackjack? Understanding the Role of Deck Quantity
This post is syndicated by the Las Vegas Advisor for the 888 casino group. Anthony Curtis comments on the 888 article introduced and linked to on this page.
Continue reading How Many Decks in Blackjack? Understanding the Role of Deck QuantityA.C. says: This article is very basic, but it correctly states that, in terms of the disadvantage you face when playing, fewer decks are better. The difference between the casino edge for a single deck versus 6 or 8 decks is about .5%. That’s due primarily to the diminished value of doubling down, but there’s also a decrease in the frequency of naturals as the number of decks increases. The article is also correct that hand-held single- and double-deck games play more slowly, as there’s more down time with shuffling. That’s another plus for beginners playing at a disadvantage (they have less exposure to the house edge). Note that the belief held by many that multiple decks are more difficult to count doesn’t apply to skilled players, who can easily count any number of decks. However, dealing a multiple deck allows the casinos to move the cut card to decrease deck penetration, which is an effective deterrent to counting.
Sands impresses; Trump’s new Mob pal; Boardwalk blotter; Mega-Jottings
Wall Street was in a sunny mood this week after Las Vegas Sands‘ 4Q22 earnings presentation. As Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken summarized, “two large takeaways in our view were strength in Singapore and what we felt was a positive tone from [management] concerning the trajectory of Macau, due to pent-up demand potential.” Normally we bristle at the overused phrase “pent-up demand” but early indicators from Red China are that gamblers are champing at the bit to get into Macao.
Cash flow at Marina Bay Sands was well ahead of The Street’s expectation, hitting $386 million at gambling monies reached an all-time high. Chaiken said Macanese trends have “accelerated” heading into Chinese New Year—in which visitation is at 40% of 2019 numbers—and that Sands is on course to post positive ROI again. But, wrote Chaiken, “the Singapore rebound (faster than we expected) could provide insight into what a Macau recovery could look like,” especially when achieved with air travel into Singapore that is still constrained at two-thirds of pre-Covid levels.
Continue reading Sands impresses; Trump’s new Mob pal; Boardwalk blotter; Mega-Jottings