Las Vegas Advisor

Posted on July 20, 2021 by Bob Dancer — 15 Comments

How I Order Food

I recommend you start out with reading Matthew Dicks’ Facebook post from July 2, 2021. Matt is one of my storytelling gurus and has posted daily posts “forever.” This time he writes about how he and his wife’s different eating habits mesh well with those of a few friends. Matt (and the female friend) like to order their own food without regard to whatever anybody else is having. They prefer to eat it without sharing with others. Matt’s wife Elysha (and the male friend) like to order somewhat communally. “If you get the veal, I’ll get the chicken and we’ll share!” When Matt and Elysha go out with these friends, everyone gets to eat the way each prefers, and all have a fine time. (Dicks lays out a third way to eat too. You’ll have to read his post to find out what it is!)

The post caused me to look at the way Bonnie and I order. It has nothing to do with any of the ways Matt laid out. It is probably a way that he has never considered. But I’m willing to bet the farm that a number of the people who read my blog order in a similar way at least some of the time.

Posted on July 20, 2021September 18, 2023 by David Mckee — 3 Comments

Las Vegas flirting with disaster; Pennsylvania sickly

With the exception of brave outliers Las Vegas Sands and Westgate Las Vegas, most casinos in Sin City are reacting to the resurgence of Covid-19 by doing … nothing. There’s a ‘been there, done that‘ attitude toward crisis-period measures like requiring guests to wear masks or stepping up hotel sanitization (one recent guest to Harrah’s Las Vegas says his room was cleaned once in four days). “Where we sit right now with the information we know, that’s the best approach, for each operator to evaluate their own situations,” said industry apologist Josh Swissman. “It really comes down to what makes the customers feel comfortable.” And if that means sickness and death, isn’t that the cost of doing business in Las Vegas? About the only hammer that could be deployed to motivate a robust response would be new safety mandates from the Nevada Gaming Control Board and we don’t seem to be at that desperate juncture yet. (Operative word “yet.”)

Posted on July 19, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 2 Comments

Atlantic City plays catch-up; Pennsylvania, Michigan flex online muscles

Casinos in Atlantic City are having trouble catching a wave from the Great Reopening. Last month’s brick-and-mortar revenues were $214.5 million, 9% down from 2019. Slot win ($154 million) was 8% lower on 11% less coin-in and luck wasn’t with the house at the tables: 16% less revenue ($58.5 million) on only 1% less wagering. Borgata ($56.6 million) was luckier in that respect than most, with its table win flat despite 11% less betting, while slots plunged 20% on 23% less coin-in for an overall -13%. The Caesars Entertainment threesome slid 15%, on 17% lower slot win (18% less handle) and an 8% dip at the tables, where players bet 7% less than two years ago. Caesars Atlantic City fell 14% to $20 million last month, Harrah’s Resort slipped 13% to $21 million and Tropicana Atlantic City tumbled 18% to $21 million.

The only-revenue positive casinos were Ocean Resort, gaining 14% to $23 million (outdoing any Caesars property), and Hard Rock Atlantic City, surging 17% to $35 million. It will take more than new, pink windows to turn around Bally’s Atlantic City, plummeting 30% to $11 million. Also falling on hard times was the Golden Nugget, down 23% to $12 million, which left Resorts Atlantic City, down 11% to $14 million.

Posted on July 19, 2021 by James Grosjean — 9 Comments

Colin Jones (S1 E6): The Secret to Investing—OPM??

I walked off a game the other day, and I have Colin Jones to thank. On paper, the game could be a 20% edge or higher. In the real world? Not so much. My frustration grew. Why am I playing this 10% garbage? I’m out.

Where does Colin Jones fit into this? Something he wrote on p. 14 of The 21^st-Century Card Counter hit home, because I’ve wrestled with it my whole career, even though I’ve never seen it in print before: “Being responsible for other people’s money is a whole different animal. I never lost a night’s sleep riding out the swings with my own money, but shouldering the weight of family and friends’ money definitely came with bouts of night sweats and indigestion.”

Posted on July 16, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Massachusetts stumbles, Louisiana cruises; Big blunder at Circa

Shazam! Massachusetts casino revenues for June were $84 million, 67% higher than 2019. But wait … as Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli points out, Encore Boston Harbor wasn’t operational two years ago (it debuted on June 23, 2019), so on a same-store basis, casinos were actually down 6%. How come? The Bay State doesn’t have Internet gambling, which is starting to sap Pennsylvania. Capacity is unrestrained, although poker rooms aren’t back and we hear that players are hopping mad about it. Maybe Massachusetts players just don’t have that pent-up demand we’ve seen just about everywhere else. Encore dominated with $52.5 million, while MGM Springfield actually managed a 1% increase, to $20 million. Plainridge Park was the laggard, falling 16.5% and grossing $11 million. Expect owner Penn National Gaming to renew its mewl for table games at what was always and explicitly meant to be a slots-only facility.

Drilling further down, Wynn Resorts had 63% market share, MGM 24% and Penn 13%. MGM’s comeback was powered by slots, up 4% whilst tables were 9% down. It was the other way around at Encore, where tables were up 3% ($23 million) and slots dipped 4% ($29.5 million). Wynn’s decision to predicate Encore on upper-market play is coming up aces but what MGM thought it was doing building a high-end property way out in Springfield will be a head-scratcher for future historians of the company. We know the rich folks like to luxuriate in nearby Lenox but still …

Posted on July 14, 2021 by James Grosjean — 6 Comments

Colin Jones (S1 E5): Dark Matter

As early as page 11 of The 21^st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones mentions the monolithic truth of the universe: “the team’s performance was consistently lower than the math predicted.” Such has been the experience of every team in the history of AP, and every solo card counter, too.

When teams look at their spreadsheets and see the stark gap between AV (Actual Value) and EV (Expected Value), they have a puzzled look like this is some great mystery. The only mystery is why rookie teams ignore the answer that I’m about to explain for the nth time. [PRO TIP FTW: use “nth” the next time you play Hangman.]

Posted on July 14, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Indiana, Missouri stay strong; Mixed feelings about buffets

Casino winnings in Indiana came up just a few increments short of $200 million last month, a 13% gain on 2019. Hard Rock Gary came out of the blocks fast, grossing $26 million, although Horseshoe Hammond climbed 7% to retain supremacy at $34.5 million. Consigned to third place in the northern tier, Ameristar East Chicago won $21.5 million, still a 20% surge from 2019. Blue Chip, on the other hand, suffered. It was down 15% to $11 million. It’s Horseshoe’s ballgame to lose.

Farther south, it was more of a mixed bag. Two big gainers were Indiana Grand, up 15% to $24.5 million, and Harrah’s Hoosier Downs, galloping +16% to $18 million. Caesars Southern Indiana also put in a strong showing, up 11.5% to $19.5 million. Hollywood Lawrenceburg ceded 2% to $13 million, while Belterra Resort slipped 9% to $8 million. Tropicana Evansville edged 3% higher to $12 million, Rising Star eked out $4 million, a 6.5% downturn, and French Lick Resort tumbled 17% to $7 million.

Posted on July 13, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 9 Comments

A Look at Arnold Snyder’s Radical Blackjack

Arnold Snyder is one of the initial seven members inducted into the Blackjack Hall of Fame. His book, Radical Blackjack, published by Huntington Press, has been in the works for years. I’ve heard many of the stories in it from Arnold himself, but I finally got to read it and there were lot of new things.

I’m not going to give all of Snyder’s arguments as spoiler alerts. But I will touch on what he discusses. If this is something you are interested in, get the book. My goal is to give you enough information for you to decide whether the book has value for you.

When is it smart to double on a hard 12?
When is it smart to insure for less than half your bet?
What are the main features of loss rebates and how do you figure out how much you should win or lose before you stop?

Posted on July 12, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Nevada conventions healthy, Nevadans not so much

Tourism to Las Vegas in May was 12% higher than April and June should continue the climb, even if long-awaited World of Concrete was a flop (one-sixth of the expected attendance). Next up was the Nightclub & Bar Show, which drew 9,000 attendees. “I have goosebumps,” said one conventioneer of the back-to-almost-normal atmosphere. Despite the pounding techno music, amenities ran toward such mundane finger foods as Cheetos and tater tots. Portable bowling alleys and karaoke machines were among the items of interest. Evidently attendance was a last-minute decision for some, judging from the on-site registrations spotted by the Wall Street Journal. Most of the products on display were rather humble, such as a new drinking game (patent pending?) and a green-colored schnapps called Nuke Waste—how apt for Nevada.

It wasn’t quite the Nightclub & Bar Show of years past, being significantly chastened by Covid concerns. Where the expo had once been synonymous with six nights of clubbing, this year there were but two. Panels and (the more important) happy hours were also curtailed. Attendance was down 15%, exhibitors by 20%, which is still a lot better than World of Concrete managed. “Most of my sales from 1980 until today are still in-person,” said game entrepreneur Bobby Earp. “There’s no substitute for the contacts we make here.” Attendees were more worried about rising labor costs and flagging social-media presences than about Coronavirus. Even if the event was rather muted, the expo floor was awash with booze, which was freely sampled, one of the great bonuses of almost any Vegas convention. With 35 large-scale events booked between now and the end of the year, the Sin City convention calendar looks surprisingly healthy.

Posted on July 9, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

CityCenter sale applauded; DraftKings sued twice over

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli took a gander at the terms of MGM Resorts International‘s purchase/re-sale of Aria and Vdara, and liked what he saw. He reaffirmed his “buy” rating on MGM shares, with a price target of $54. He applauded the deal for three reasons: simplification of MGM’s corporate structure by removing joint-venture partner Infinity World; cash and lots of it; the transaction “allows MGM to better manage its Strip assets, as opposed to receiving fifty cent dollars at a key core asset, as it had been.” Santarelli believes MGM will use at least some of the proceeds to pay the remaining $1.7 billion in CityCenter debt. Considering that it cost MGM $4 billion to build Aria alone, we think the transaction is, at best, a wash, not to mention the death knell for “New Urbanism” on the Las Vegas Strip. Still, when one considers the collapse of the condo market, the slow, slow ramp-up of Crystals and the Harmon Hotel fiasco, MGM is getting out relatively unscathed.

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