Las Vegas Advisor

Posted on April 22, 2021September 18, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

BetMGM “very credible”; Recovery at Sands “gradual”

That’s how JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff described an evidently persuasive virtual meeting with BetMGM covering the latter’s recent results and strategic objectives. “To us, this was a credible presentation (particularly with its customer acquisition and retention objectives and operating model as well as profitability ramp) and investors can’t argue with or dispute the [joint venture’s] recent operating momentum and share gains,” Greff declared. He was impressed with BetMGM’s nationwide market share of 23% and its potential to edge out either DraftKings or FanDuel for the second spot in the sports-betting universe, to say nothing of Internet gambling. “BetMGM now expects the total addressable market in the U.S. and Canada to be approximately $32b (long-term, timeline not specified but our guess it’s 2030 +/-),” Greff wrote, adding that net revenues for the company were growing exponentially and could reach $1 billion next year. BetMGM has gone live in 12 U.S. jurisdictions, expected to grow to 20 by April 2022. That’s 40% of the American populace. (California remains out of reach until after the 2022 elections at the earliest.)

Posted on April 21, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Michigan sports betting, i-gaming surge; AGA chases renegade slots

Say what you like about Michigan, it’s giving New Jersey and Pennsylvania a literal run for their money in Internet gambling. Win/day is just over $3 million, close behind the Keystone State’s $3.15 million and challenging the Garden State’s $3.65 million. Sports betting handle last month was $359.5 million, which (before promotional outlays) translates into $32 million in revenue, a figure dwarfed by $95 million in i-gaming win. Market leader in handle was FanDuel/MotorCity Casino with 30% ($107 million), followed by BetMGM‘s 26% ($92.5 million), DraftKings‘ 21% ($76.5 million) and—losing a bit of ground—Barstool Sports‘ 11% ($39.5 million). Others showing up on the radar were PointsBet/Lac Vieux Desert Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians ($14 million), William Hill/Grand Traverse Bay Band of Ottawa & Chippewa Indians ($11 million), FoxBet/Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians ($7 million), BetRivers/Little River Band of the Ottawa Indians ($5 million), Twin Spires/Hannahville Indian Community ($3 million) and WynnBet/Sault Ste. Marie Tribe of Chippewa Indians ($2 million).

As for win, it broke in BetMGM’s favor ($9 million), with FanDuel posting $8 million, DraftKings $6 million and Barstool $5 million. Of the also-rans only PointsBet and William Hill cracked the $1 million mark. Said one analyst, “The top three have separated themselves from the pack, but BetMGM has differentiated itself in generating heavy action while preserving its win with less in promotions.”

Posted on April 20, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 27 Comments

Unrealistic Expectations

Many of you know that I participate in storytelling events. I’ve been regularly attending a workshop to improve my skills.

Recently, after we had all practiced our stories online for the day, Pete, the leader who lives on the East Coast, asked me if I would be willing to take him around and show him how to play were he to come to Vegas.

Posted on April 19, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 3 Comments

Atlantic City disappoints, Internet gambling doesn’t

We’re going to have revise our prediction that Atlantic City would recover from Covid-19 faster than Las Vegas. Not at the rate things are going. March casino win was down 17% from 2019, coming in at $185 million. The Caesars Entertainment threesome slid 29%, with slot win down 29% and table win -26%. That’s far worse than citywide averages, which saw slot win -17% and tables -16%. Borgata‘s $46.5 million, while more than enough to lead the market, was 22% off from 2019’s halcyon days. We already knew Hard Rock Atlantic City had a good month, as President Joe Lupo took a press-release victory lap even before the revenue numbers were released. It grossed $31 million, a 25% leap over 2019. Ocean Casino Resort vaulted 33% to $20 million. The next closest thing to a ‘good’ number was Resorts Atlantic City‘s 19% dip to $12 million. Thanks to Hard Rock and Ocean, that -17% overall declivity looks a lot better than it was. Bally’s Atlantic City slid 33% to $10 million and Golden Nugget plunged 38.5% to $11 million. Caesars Atlantic City shed 23% to $18 million, Harrah’s Resort fell 33% to $18 million and Tropicana Atlantic City slid 30% to $19 million.

Posted on April 16, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

Pennsylvania booms and busts, Massachusetts lags

Casino revenues were $270.5 million last month in Pennsylvania, down 22% from March 2019, another exception to the wave of recovery sweeping the country. Slots accounted for $199 million, tables for $71.5 million. Casinos were held to 50% of capacity, moving to 75% this month. King of the terrestrial casinos was Parx, far and away the leader with $53 million, only 6% down. Philadelphia Live may have done ‘only’ $20 million but solidified its hold on second place in the greater Philly market. Rivers Philadelphia was just under $20 million but down 28%, Harrah’s Philadelphia grossed $16.5 million, a 34% tumble and Valley Forge Casino Resort notched $10.5 million, a 19% slippage. In other major markets, Wind Creek Bethlehem won $34 million, a 33% falloff, Rivers Pittsburgh did $27.5 million, down 23% and Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs dipped 14% to $18.5 million. Mount Airy defended its market share best, off 4.5% to $15.5 million.

Elsewhere, Presque Isle Downs fell 21.5% to $10 million, The Meadows racino tumbled 37% to $15 million, Hollywood Penn National slipped 17% to $20 million, and Live Pittsburgh grossed $8 million (no comparison available). Oh, and little Lady Luck Nemacolin slid 26.5% to $2 million.

Posted on April 15, 2021 by David Mckee — 5 Comments

Vegas: green shoots galore; Seminoles saluted

Against all odds, it appears that Las Vegas‘ recovery is taking place faster than anticipated (save by a very few). A CNN feature is vaguely euphoric but it does cite several new must-see attractions. For the all-important convention business, which sustains the town Monday-Thursday, there is the lure of the West Hall of the Las Vegas Convention Center, which may banish memories of the Riviera, whose site it occupies. Then there’s a triple-whammy of new casinos: Circa, Virgin Las Vegas (or Mohegan Sun Las Vegas, according to the TITO vouchers) and the July-debuting Resorts World Las Vegas, the most expensive megaresort yet built in Sin City. And, for a wholesome change of pace, the Pinball Hall of Fame reopens at a new location at the southern terminus of the Las Vegas Strip, complete with a park for food trucks. We sense a smash hit in the making.

More quantifiably, Plaza Hotel CEO Jonathan Jossel reports that business was “hopping” during March Madness and that casino play has regained pre-pandemic levels, which would be no small achievement. Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is so optimistic that he’s planning a return to full capacity in public spaces as of June 1 (Nye County, for one, is jumping the gun, going 100% on May 1). Self-service buffets—if they return—can come back at 50% on May Day, as can nightclubs and strip joints. (No word yet on brothels.) As for casinos going back to 100%, that’s the Nevada Gaming Control Board‘s call to make, although we imagine the pressure will be overwhelming.

Posted on April 14, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 3 Comments

Missouri booms; Trop sale a steal of a deal

After a hiccup in Indiana, gaming revenues continued to march (pun unintended) upward from 2019 levels, which were pretty darn robust. Missouri gained 6% for a gross of $176.5 million, “one of the best months ever” according to JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. Slots represented $155 million of the haul. “Similar to other March regional [gross gaming revenue] reports, results for the month reflect a nice positive inflection given lower infection and higher vaccination rates. Moreover, impressive results don’t include significant rebound in the core 55+ customer, which we expect to follow in the coming months,” wrote Greff. Lumiere Place (pictured) continues to turn around, up 8% to $17 million, good news for Caesars Entertainment. Also feeling the love was Boyd Gaming, up 12.5% to $28 million at Ameristar St. Charles. Not having such a good time of it was Penn National Gaming, flopping 23.5% at Hollywood St. Louis ($17.5 million), while River City was down 9% but bettered Hollywood with $19 million.

Posted on April 13, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 5 Comments

Further Analyzing Dotty’s Double Up Promotion

Last week I went through the basics of playing NSU Deuces Wild for $75 per hand and using the Double Up feature every hand until it was either at least $1,200 (generating a W2g) or reduced to zero.

I never played this personally. I didn’t believe the promotion would last, and so I let others do it. But, for today, I’d like to discuss my method of figuring out how much it was worth.

Posted on April 13, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Trop flipped; Arizona, Maryland join sports-betting club

The Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. regime at Tropicana Las Vegas was (as planned) a short-lived one. GLPI just announced that it has flipped the Trop to Bally’s Corp., which evidently couldn’t wait one minute longer to get onto the Las Vegas Strip. For an unspecified “value” of the property, Bally’s gets the casino and pays $22.5 million in “incremental rent.” Not done yet, Bally’s sold the real estate of its Black Hawk, Colorado casino and that of Jumer’s Casino Rock Island for a combined $150 million. That’s a neat trick for Bally’s, considering that its purchase of Jumer’s (a real turkey) hasn’t closed yet. Sell something you don’t own? That’s clever. We wonder what Illinois regulators will think of this three-card monte. The Black Hawk and Rock Island casinos will be consolidated into a GLPI master lease that includes Bally’s rentals of Tropicana Evansville and Dover Downs. “Recall, last year, early on it the pandemic, GLPI received the Trop from PENN … last year in exchange for 2020 rent credits (since used and expired). We look at today’s news as a creative way for GLPI to extract long-term value from last year’s deal with PENN (which is no longer the OpCo nor has any economic/equity interest in the Trop),” wrote JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff. As for Bally’s, it may need a stout dose of Geritol, as it is making a habit of buying casinos with tired blood in their veins.

Posted on April 12, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

It’s DraftKings’ world, we just live in it; Musk tunnel panned

While Coronavirus and the ensuing shut-ins were very good for DraftKings by virtually every metric, CEO Jason Robins says the fun is just beginning. He told the Boston Globe that the pandemic has ratified his business model, which presumed the widespread acceptance of i-gaming. The stock market has also been good to DKNG, which is riding a market capitalization of $24 billion. It’s a reward for those who bought into Robins’ strategy, which was predicated on patience, prioritizing expansion over profits. Indeed, DraftKings lost $855 million last year and could be a billion in the red this year. However, DraftKings has secured a monopoly in two states (New Hampshire and Oregon) and appears juiced into a duopoly in another (New York State). Although daily fantasy sports, DraftKings’ early signature business, has taken a back seat to real-life sports betting, the DFS experience built valuable brand equity. PlayUSA analyst Dustin Gouker calls the DraftKings and FanDuel customer wellsprings “better than a regular casino’s database.”

It didn’t hurt that DraftKings was well-suited for its employees to work offsite as Covid-19 surged. “We adjusted faster than I would have thought to the working environment talking to each other over computer screens, and I think we’ll adjust to whatever comes next,” Robins told the Globe. However, he has to catch FanDuel in the OSB sphere. FanDuel posted $645 million over the last three years compared to DraftKings’ $501 million. And Robins isn’t laughing off new-is competition from Big Gaming. However, DraftKings may have to temper its brash advertising approach. “There’s always got to be a tieback to responsible gaming, and not an oversaturation of advertising and marketing and being in too many people’s faces,” industry consultant Sara Slane told the paper. Ironically, DraftKings remains a prophet (if not profit) without honor in its home state. Sports betting is still illegal in Massachusetts and the Lege is getting nowhere fast on the issue.

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