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No joy in Sin City

What follows was shared with us via Facebook. It shows the (ugly) face of customer interactions in present-day Las Vegas

“I need you to know what people in positions of service are experiencing right now.

“Tonight I am working at the Piano bar with … two of the most patient and composed people I know. A party of 18 came in. Sundays have been pretty slow lately, so we were grateful for the business. This party, like many, started out upset at the mask requirements and like many, expressed their displeasure by haranguing the bartender taking their orders. After receiving their drinks, they became even more upset by our current ‘no open mic’ policy, a safety precaution mandated by the state. By the time I was called to sing my set, their ire and inebriation had snowballed into aggressive shouting, again, not uncommon for the current bar scene. I sang my party songs, hoping to turn it around. By my third song, the were singing/shouting along with the music and replacing the lyrics with sexually explicit verbiage about me. As I began to pass the tip jar, a member their party became unreasonably upset about the minimum on his tab, which is posted on our door and explained when patrons are seated. The whole party rallied behind him and they all decided to close their tabs and leave. They closed their many tabs, upon only one of which was left a tip, of two dollars. This is not a story about the money though …

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Who Are the Patrons?

On our February 4 Gambling with an Edge podcast, Anthony Curtis brought up something that I had experienced, but not understood why it was happening. With some notable exceptions, numerous Las Vegas casinos have really tightened up. Slot clubs are less generous. Promotions are smaller. Games aren’t as loose as they were.

In my opinion, this is not the smart way for these casinos to be acting. Their customers are hurting. Their customers have less money. At least some of the customers are wary about venturing into casinos at all until the percentage of our population vaccinated is much higher than it is now.

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F-blue returns from the grave; Caesars socks it to you

The Thing That Wouldn’t Die, aka Fontainebleau, is back again. Former owner Steven Witkoff has sold it to Koch Real Estate Investments for an undisclosed price. Considering that Witkoff bought it from Carl Icahn for $600 million and estimated that “The Drew” (as it was briefly called but never came to be) would cost in the neighborhood of $3 billion to finish, we’re looking at a very pricey megaresort project for Koch (as in Koch Brothers). The latter is in partnership with Fontainebleau Development so, yes, F-blue is a thing once more. Mind you, we’re talking about a casino-resort that’s been under construction for 14 freaking years (so old that Harry Reid was Senate Majority Leader when the original owners came cadging for a bailout). That $3 billion figure may have been optimistic.

Looking on the bright side, Koch trumpeted, “With Las Vegas‘s tourism recovery underway, the city has safely reopened to millions of visitors since June with even more success on the horizon.” Koch assures us that it practices “an agnostic approach to product, geography, and capital position,” which I guess is meant to assure us that this isn’t a leap of faith. As for Fontainebleau Development, it’s—oh no!—the return of the Soffer clan, the people who got us in this mess in the first place. Let’s hope their edifice complex is better-financed this time around. Even so, it may indeed take an act of God to make F-blue pencil out. As Scott Roeben emphasizes, it’s dumping—er, debuting—3,780 hotel rooms into a market that will be hard-pressed to absorb them, even a couple of years down the road. After all, F-blue is being beaten to the punch by not-unchallenged Resorts World Las Vegas. So there’s that. Even Resorts World fan Roeben is nervous about the latter’s prospects. “We suspect Koch will take a wait-and-see approach, sitting on this asset until market conditions improve, should that ever happen,” Roeben writes. Which means the butt-ugly corpse of F-blue is with us to stay for a long time.

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MGM revisited; Mixed month for Indiana

Today it was Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken‘s turn to weigh in on MGM Resorts International‘s 4Q20 numbers and he found even more to like than did Joseph Greff yesterday. Leading with Macao, Chaiken saw MGM China capturing more of mass-market play “which presents a powerful high margin earnings story should there be a mass recovery story in ’22, as is our expectation.” The only damper on that prospect is the stream of big-ticket resort openings from Sands China, Sociedade de Jogos de Macau and Galaxy Entertainment, which could shake things up further. Chaiken also predicted that Wynn Resorts would pivot to mass-market players, presumably because VIP action has been thin on the ground. Like us, Chaiken was keen on the performance of MGM’s regional U.S. casinos, which have boasted “a faster than expected rebound” from pandemic constraints. Although he arguably buried the lead, the analyst was also impressed by BetMGM‘s performance in both i-gaming and sports betting, “outperforming expectations … driven by efficient customer acquisition and better than expected share.”

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BetMGM saves company’s bacon; Whither the Palms?

Seesawing between the effects of closures and capacity restrictions, Detroit casinos were down 28% last month. They grossed $87 million, led by MGM Grand Detroit with $34 million (-32%). Breathing down MGM’s neck is MotorCity‘s $33 million haul (-21%), while Greektown lagged with $19.5 million (-20.5%). Walk-up sports betting was a smash, with $4 million in revenue realized in just nine days on $36 million in handle. The numbers for online wagering and i-gaming aren’t in yet but they should be impressive. So, all things being equal, it could have been much worse.

Elsewhere in the MGM Resorts International empire, 4Q20 numbers were reported by Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli and they send one reeling. Las Vegas was a black hole of nothingness, plunging 66.5% ($480 million), while regional operations were better—if one defines “better” by being 34% off 2019’s pace. At least they brought in more money: $595.5 million. MGM China was nothing to write home about, being down 58% and winning $305 million. The disparity between Las Vegas and the rest of the U.S. was more pronounced in terms of net revenue, $53 million vs. $158.5 million, leading one to wonder if MGM reopened its Las Vegas Strip fleet too much and too soon. (More on that theme later.) Bad as these results were, JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff had actually expected them to be worse, calling the numbers “unsurprising.”

Why so sanguine? OSB and Internet gambling were “objectively impressive” with BetMGM forecast to capture 15% of American OSB share and 20% of i-gaming action. (He wasn’t so chill about the Strip, lowering his cash-flow projections.) The good online news inspired Greff to boost his MGM price target from $32/share to $37. MGM leadership thinks business will not return to 2019 levels for a couple of years, projecting that it will be 90% of prior-year levels by late 2022. Greff is a bit more optimistic than that. Strip occupancy fell from 89% to 38%, thanks of course to nonexistent convention business, table-game wagering was 41% less (though the house won more often) and “properties are still being negatively impacted by capacity constraints, lack of demand/airlift, etc.”

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Station sitting pretty; Missouri booms; All bets off at MGM

Despite fourth quarter revenues that were 28% off the pace ($122 million) in Las Vegas, analysts on Wall Street are liking Station Casinos these days. Native American management fees in 4Q20 were up 21% ($25.5 million) for one thing. JP Morgan‘s Joseph Greff opined that the Vegas locals market “should be in a good supply-demand relationship for a while.” And it’s throwing off a great deal of free cash flow, a good thing to have when A) the Palms investment may be extremely difficult to recoup and B) you’re looking at new projects like Durango Station, which management expects to generate 20% or better ROI. And no wonder, given how underserved that part of the valley is. Having four shuttered casinos isn’t a bad thing, says Greff, reporting that traffic is being redirected into other Station properties. “Moreover, we think there is upside potential in our future forecasts related to a return in its older, core customer (65 years and older), which should complement/provide a cushion related to its presently favorable growth in new, younger casino patrons.”

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Normality in Ohio, disaster in Illinois; Planet Ho sale mooted

Maybe the ‘skinny stimulus’ helped Ohio. Gross gaming revenues of $153.5 million were only 8.5% off last year’s pace. The gambling houses are still operating at 50% capacity and under a curfew but the number remains impressive. Hollywood Toledo continues to benefit from the closures in Detroit (recently lifted), up 14.5% to $18 million. Hollywood Columbus declined 12%, also to $18 million. As for Penn National Gaming‘s two racinos, Hollywood Mahoning Valley grossed $12 million, minus 3% and Hollywood Dayton, up 6.5%, also pocketed $11 million. Belterra Park showed signs of stabilization, down 9% to $6.5 million. Scioto Downs had a good month, down only 1% for $15.5 million. MGM Northfield Park was in a three-way tie for first place, grossing $18 million (a 21.5% tumble). Jack Cleveland, now with 100% less Dan Gilbert, was down 10% to $16.5 million whilst Jack Thistledown gained 13% to $13 million. Hard Rock Cincinnati continues to struggle, plunging 34% to $12.5 million. That only leaves Miami Valley Gaming, down 12% to $14 million.

An extra weekend day may have helped Ohio but it didn’t do squat for Illinois, where gambling revenues fell a catastrophic 74%. How come? Casinos were closed half the month, had to shut down nightly at 11 p.m. and were restricted to 25% of capacity. Whatever pent-up demand existed wasn’t sufficient to even partly compensate. Gross gaming revenues were a pitiful $26 million. Heck, Rivers Casino Des Plaines does that and more in a good month. In this case, Rivers towered over the market with $9 million (-77%) with nobody else coming close. In terms of retaining pre-Covid market share, Boyd Gaming‘s Par-A-Dice did best, off 46% to $2.5 million. Jumer’s Casino Rock Island continues to look like a terrible investment for Bally Corp., eking out $1 million (-72%). It did incrementally worse than DraftKings at Casino Queen, just over $1 million and -82%.

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Welcome to Less Vegas

Caesars Entertainment, aka Eldorado Resorts, has become possessed by the evil spirit of spare-every-expense Columbia Sussex. In one of the most odious of recent cutpurse moves, bartenders have been ordered to short-pour liquor: The ‘new normal’ is .75 ounces per drink, meaning you’ll have to buy more drinks in order to get that buzz going. Caesars has been the prime offender in recent moves such as jacked-up table limits but this story, broken by Vital Vegas, has clearly struck a nerve, going viral in no time flat. (Viral Vegas?) CEO Tom Reeg had already established a reputation for cheeseparing but this move couldn’t have been better designed to alienate customers if he tried. Much more of this and Sin City will lose its cachet as a bargain destination, if it hasn’t already.

To get to the nub of the issue, Linq has essentially halved the amount of liquor that will be poured into your Vodka Cranberry but will of course charge you just as much for it as though it were actually a stiff drink. (It’s 1.25 oz. per pour at MGM Resorts International, in case you wondering.) Vital Vegas paid a visit to Linq and found it in a significantly down-market state: “there were virtually no customers. Entire swaths of table games have been removed and replaced with slot machines. Such moves make some sense given low demand (table games involve much higher labor costs), but even if these changes are temporary, you’d think casinos would want to draw customers, not repel them with weak drinks.” Indeed.

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