"X" a/k/a The Harrah's Rincon million $$ drawings

Let's take it one at a time:

1. You wrote: "Just how does this give a positive return on the game, if "about" half of the cash back/fsp is valid on Tuesdays? 9.26% + 0.5% = 9.76%"

Well, that's only for January and February. For the rest of the year it's over 100%. It becomes positive (and you probably don't see it that way) when you play on Tuesdays during Jan and Feb... and the rest of the year as well... when you get triple entries for the drawings. Also not being considered here are the extra comps and perks that high rollers get. 'They get 'em but I don't because I don't rank as high. And don't forget, those extra reward credits can be immediately used to purchase additional free play or gift cards -- even the same day. So a $100 vp player can play, go to total rewards and redeem points for additional free play on the same day.

2. You wrote: "Since there is/are no guarantees on winning any drawing, just what EV are you attributing to each entry? What value? This is all speculation, but there may be many millions of entries, including the low rollers."

True, and even Bob Dancer approaches this subject in his articles about playing for certain drawings. You don't have to win to have an "advantage play," do you? You just have to have the theoretical advantage. Isn't that what all of you advantage players yell about?? Isn't that your holy grail?

3. You wrote a bunch of stuff which is your own personal bias against me. As I wrote earlier, you can call Rincon and ask them about the pay tables and the games and you can consult Wizardofodds.com as well. No doubt there will be other entries in the barrel but clearly a high roller playing on Tuesdays with triple entries at a high denomination and is certain to be there every Saturdya for the drawings plus on New Years will have a dominant advantage. High rollers have dominated similar drawings in the past.

But what concerns me is this that you wrote:

"That still leaves the game at 92.86% MAX, plus value of drawing entries."

How do you come up with a game at 92.86% MAX??? The game 8/5 aces and faces has a pay table of 99.26% Where did you come up with 92.86-percent???

My "bad". Typo and/or failure to proof read. Should have read 99.86%. 99.26% basic, and 0.6% more for FSP, CB, etc that is "verifiable" at this moment, and taking your provided information at face value.

MY "holy grail", as an ap, is an immediate advantage that equals or exceeds 100%. Personally, I "discount" drawings when evaluating a promotion. And I have no idea what your definition of a "dominant advantage" is. Care to explain/define your use of that term?

I do notice you still will not place an "EV" or monetary value on those entries. What "dollar" value do you place on an entry?

As for the extra comps and perks high rollers get, again there is no verifiable proof or guarantees that will be/is available, or will continue throughout the year at the same or greater amount.

roadtrip thanks for correcting your typo.

So the debate comes down to this:

We have two months where we know a high limit player on the $100 8/5 Aces and Faces machines will get a return of at least 99.86% and then for ten more months will have about 100.26%. Since I am math challenged, what is the annualized rate for the full year? (No other comps, perks, or drawings included.)

Well, I don't know if I did the math correctly but I get an annualized rate of 100.193-percent for the full 12-months, not including any additional comps, perks, or wins for the drawings, or even additional free play or value from gift cards purchased with reward credits.

Now a little inside info:

The 8/5 Aces and Faces is the last of the better paying video poker games for the high limit slots at Rincon. Last year they got rid of all of the full pay games including 9/6 jacks and regular 8/5 Bonus. Somehow two games slipped through the cracks -- 8/5 Aces and Faces, the 8/5 Aces Bonu$ are still available at the $100 and $25 level. (They are also available as low as 25-cents, however.)

9/6 Jacks is no longer on the property in fact throughout Rincon you will find 8/5 Jacks.
8/5 Super Aces Bonus is available only as high as $5 which is the only other full pay game.
There is an 8/5 Bonus double super times pay game but that, I think, only has a maximum of 50-cents per coin.

I might have made a mistake, depending on your interpretation, roadtrip.

If we used the first two months with just the return of the game at 99.26% plus ten months at 100.26% then the annualized rate is 100.093% for the full 12 months. Still above 100% without additional comps, perks, drawings, multiple point days, additional free play, gift cards, free drinks, pretzels or all the handiwipes you can take from the cage.

OH, yeah.....

The point I'm attempting to make is that CET will, eventually, (most likely sooner than later?), realize the game may be/ is "exploitable" (IF it really is) and reduce the pay tables, or reduce the comps, or restructure the FSP, or that certain advantage players are winning and reduce or eliminate mail offers for those players, back them off the game, or otherwise find a way to "keep" the game closer to the theo expected.

I used the number 0.6% to be generous and also represent what you said you mail offers are. If that number is high, if the offers change downward by just a little bit, than the game could be back to less than 100% pretty darn quick.

And I would be very surprised if that 1% is a "constant" through the year. Locally, friends who claim they played the same amount each visit/month are always remarking how their offers have changed. I do not know how accurate their information is, or if they even keep records. I do "note" my points each visit when I cash out, and keep the numbers in my gaming journal along side my poker results. And I'm pretty OCD about keeping my records correct, especially because we enjoy great poker promotions and "hourly pay" if enough hours are accumulated.

I know my offers did last month, by half, yet my points, and number of visits, were on a par for previous months. So why the change?

Answer:

Because they can. ::: shrug :::

BTW: I've got plenty of handi wipes, pens, rubber bands, chip racks (use 'em for ice cube trays). Lately it's been about boxes of Kleenex tissues, or those monster rolls of toilet paper that measure about 2 feet in diameter. (About the toilet paper. One, just one "new" one of those giant rolls should last one person well over a year. Of course, if that person is full of crap, it probably will not last quite that long.)

Not addressing this to anyone specifically, but I can think of a few forum users who probably should grab several rolls.

Okay, I understand where you're coming from. But the items you raise regarding pay tables and free play can always change. But when you consider these promotions you consider them based on "current conditions" and these are the current conditions.

Privately, several APers have confirmed my math, as well as the free play conditions I spoke about.

no they havent.

Gee dgp, I forgot to include you in on the calls. But thanks.

Did you see the movie Argo.

Well... Argo....

This is what irritates me. HOW THE HELL DO YOU KNOW?

You guys keep putting words(or twisting them) in his posts and keep ASSuming stuff or just pretty much call him an out and out liar. Why he even keeps trying to defend himself is pointless, your alls minds are made up when you see his name and before even reading what he has to say, hell he didn't even title the thread to anyone but a single person and the boatlaod of ya jumped down his throat.

J

I don't see anyone confirming what MLA is proposing.
Do you really think the players here would cut off their noses to spite their faces?